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Why the Atlanta Falcons turned back to QB Taylor Heinicke

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Dan Graziano, Domonique Foxworth and Mike Greenberg break down everything that's gone wrong for the Falcons under Arthur Smith. (1:18)

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- In the harsh rain at Bank of America Stadium a year ago, then-Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota struggled in a loss against the Carolina Panthers, making critical mistakes that led to questions about his future as the team's starting quarterback.

Earlier that year, Atlanta had drafted rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder in the third round. Mariota started three more games after the dreary Charlotte night, but it felt like a turning point.

Atlanta eventually turned to Ridder, who started the final four games last season and showed enough for Falcons coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot to name him the starting quarterback this year.

Thirteen months after Mariota's dreadful night, Ridder ran to his left at a rainy Bank of America Stadium and threw a ball on the run in the red zone -- right to a Carolina defender. It kept Atlanta out of the end zone and the Falcons went on to lose to the worst team in the NFL in a game where Ridder also had two poor snap exchanges, emblematic of his yearlong issues protecting the ball.

Atlanta coach Arthur Smith said after the game he would have to evaluate everything again. It was Ridder's 16th NFL start and Smith had already gone from Ridder to backup Taylor Heinicke, and then back to Ridder two weeks later. Now, he'd contemplate another switch after Atlanta lost four of its last six -- a stretch of games where both Ridder and Heinicke started.

The Falcons announced Tuesday that Heinicke will start Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. Ridder's second benching comes after both flashes of potential, and far too many critical mistakes and fumbles.

In his career -- 16 starts, 17 games -- Ridder completed 63.3% of his passes for 3,236 yards, 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He took 40 sacks while rushing 67 times for 257 yards and five touchdowns. He also fumbled 14 times, nearly one per start.

He had six red zone turnovers this year, most in the NFL.

The flashes, particularly in the fourth quarter of games, showed what Atlanta liked in Ridder. He completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,225 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions and a QBR of 60.1 in the fourth -- nearly 20 points higher than any other quarter.

Since 2000, 117 quarterbacks made their first 16 NFL starts. Even though the NFL now has a 17-game season, the majority of NFL quarterbacks over the last two-plus decades have had their seasons in 16-game segments. So with that in mind, how does Ridder measure up to those quarterbacks?

"Obviously, I've had my ups and downs," Ridder said recently. "I've been able to go out there and play good games and then, obviously throughout the games, there's one or two plays in each game where something goes wrong or there's a mistake.

"But then it's how do you respond? And I feel like every time a mistake has happened, I've responded the right way."

With that caveat in mind, and with the assistance of ESPN Stats & Information, here's where Ridder stood among those 117 quarterbacks in his 16 starts (not counting his fourth quarter appearance against the Arizona Cardinals this season off the bench).

Completion percentage

San Francisco's Brock Purdy has the highest of quarterbacks since 2000 -- 69.7% -- followed by Chad Pennington (69.2%), Dak Prescott (67.8%) and Mac Jones (67.6%).

Ridder is at 63.3%, tied with Tony Romo, just below Aaron Rodgers (63.6%) and just above Kirk Cousins (63.2%).

Ridder was able to complete passes -- and in recent weeks showed more downfield accuracy and better touch on his throws -- but this can be a misleading statistic. Not every offense will push the ball downfield, and depending on the quarterback and the system, a higher completion percentage can be the product of an offense built around shorter, safer throws. But more often than not, Ridder was good here.

Yards

Patrick Mahomes threw for the most yards in his first 16 starts -- 5,100 -- followed by Justin Herbert (4,673), Nick Mullens (4,405) and Andrew Luck (4,374).

Ridder is 71st with 3,197 yards.

Some of this has to do with the run-heavy offense Atlanta has played with Ridder, but it also shows he didn't go downfield all that often in the majority of his starts. Ridder reached or exceeded this year's NFL average of 7.5 air yards per attempt in just five of his starts -- and the Falcons went 4-1 in those games.

QBR

Mahomes is once again on top (79.7), followed by Prescott (77.6), Russell Wilson (74.8) and Romo (73.7).

Ridder is 66th at 42.8, behind Brian Hoyer (43.8) and ahead of Joe Flacco (42.7).

Touchdowns

Mahomes again is the best (48), with Deshaun Watson (36), Daunte Culpepper (33), Herbert (32) and Pennington (32) behind him.

Ridder has thrown 12 touchdowns, tied for 95th with a lot of players including Trent Edwards, Chris Simms, Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill.

Some of it has to do with Atlanta's run-heavy offense, but that's not enough in today's NFL.

Interceptions

Prescott threw the fewest in his first 16 starts (4), followed by Nick Foles (6), Robert Griffin III (7), Pennington (7) and Jacoby Brissett (7).

Ridder has 10, tied for 13th fewest with Kenny Pickett, Josh McCown, Wilson and others. He's ahead of many high-level players, including Mahomes (12), Matt Ryan (12) and Tom Brady (13). A.J. Feeley (26), Matthew Stafford (23) and Cousins (23) had the most.

Sacks taken

No quarterback took more sacks in his first 16 starts than David Carr, who was brought down 76 times with the Houston Texans. The next-highest was Cleveland's Charlie Frye, with 65, and Jacksonville's Blake Bortles, with 61.

Ridder has been sacked 40 times, tied for 76th with Matt Moore, Davis Mills, Anthony Wright, E.J. Manuel and Heinicke.

It speaks to two things: Questionable offensive line play and holding onto the ball too long. In Ridder's case it was a combination.

Fumbles/overall turnovers

Carr also had the most fumbles through 16 starts (21), followed by Daniel Jones (20) and Alex Smith (18). Jones (12), Frye (10) and Michael Vick (9) had the most fumbles lost. A.J. Feeley (32) had the most overall turnovers, followed by Jones (29) and Frye (29).

Ridder, who has been besieged by turnovers at times, has 18, tied with Deshaun Watson and Jason Campbell. Among those with more are Cam Newton (19), Justin Fields (20) and Heinicke (20). Ridder's 14 fumbles are tied with Carson Wentz and Lamar Jackson, among others.

His eight fumbles lost are tied for sixth-most with Mariota, Russell, J.P. Losman, Gardner Minshew and Tim Rattay. Among the players with more? Michael Vick (nine) and Jones (12).

The fumbles and turnovers at costly times are what did Ridder in, perhaps more than any other metric. Smith pointed to turning the ball over Monday as something which will too often get you beat. And far too often, it was Ridder's turnovers which played a major role in beating the Falcons.

How other Falcons quarterbacks have measured up

Every team and scenario are different, but Ridder's statistics compare reasonably well to Atlanta's other two quarterbacks with at least 16 starts since 2000: Matt Ryan and Michael Vick.

Ryan completed 61.1% of his passes for 3,440 yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while being sacked 17 times. He was also off-target on 18% of his throws. Vick completed 54.4% of his passes for 2,904 yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions while being sacked 38 times. While Ridder's numbers are comparable, he has more turnovers (18) than touchdowns (17) or starts (16).

Both Ryan and Vick went on to good -- or great -- careers in Atlanta. Due to the turnovers and other factors, Ridder may not.