Move over, Ohio State. There's a new No. 1.
At least there is here in the latest prediction of what the College Football Playoff selection committee will do when it releases its third of six rankings on Tuesday.
Georgia beat Ole Miss on Saturday in resounding fashion, avoiding any sense of an upset and winning its second straight game against a ranked opponent. The back-to-back national champs have won the SEC East and will face Alabama in the SEC championship game on Dec. 2.
The Bulldogs weren't the only team making a statement on Saturday. Michigan, playing without suspended coach Jim Harbaugh, earned an emotional win on the road against Penn State for its first victory of the season against a ranked opponent.
"The storm's coming," Michigan offensive lineman Trevor Keegan said. "We are the storm."
Washington also enhanced its playoff résumé with a win against back-to-back Pac-12 champion Utah.
If you were bored with last week's status quo ranking by the committee, fear not. This was a shake-up on Saturday for the nine teams that still have a chance at finishing in the top four. Here's an instant prediction for how the Week 11 results will impact the committee's latest ranking.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (10-0)
Previous CFP rank: 2
Why they could move up: Not only did Georgia beat the committee's No. 9 team in Ole Miss, it did so with style, giving the Bulldogs the nation's best combination of résumé and eye test. For two weeks, that distinction belonged to Ohio State, but the Bulldogs' wins against the Rebels and No. 14 Missouri now trump Ohio State's victories against No. 10 Penn State and No. 20 Notre Dame. The Buckeyes' win against the Nittany Lions will be devalued somewhat because the committee will likely drop the Lions out of the top 10 following their loss to Michigan. Meanwhile, Georgia's win against Mizzou looks even better after the Tigers beat Tennessee and could now be the committee's top two-loss team.
Why they could stay No. 2: With Georgia's résumé now more impressive, the top two would only stay the same if the committee simply still believes Ohio State is the better team.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 1
Why they could move down: Ohio State's convincing win against a 3-7 Michigan State team won't do anything to impress the committee -- especially on a Saturday when Georgia manhandled a top-10 team and the rest of Ohio State's résumé took a hit. Last week, committee chair Boo Corrigan cited "the win at Wisconsin, seven wins over teams with winning records really drove the day." That all changed Saturday, as Wisconsin fell to 5-5 after losing to a 5-5 Northwestern team. Notre Dame, Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers are the only Ohio State opponents over .500. And Rutgers getting blanked 22-0 by offensively inept Iowa didn't do the Buckeyes any favors. That's the same Rutgers team that held a 9-7 lead over Ohio State in the first half last week. Still, the Buckeyes' win against Notre Dame, which had a bye this week, should continue to give it the edge over rival Michigan.
Why they could stay No. 1: As stated above, the only reason would be because a majority of the committee members still believe Ohio State is better. The committee has singled out the play of Buckeyes standout wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., running back TreVeyon Henderson and the top-20 defense -- and all were on display again in the lopsided win against Michigan State.
3. Michigan Wolverines (10-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 3
Why they could move up: Michigan finally earned a statement win against a top-25 team, and the Wolverines did it on the road without their suspended head coach. The selection committee will consider all three of those factors, along with the Wolverines' ability to run the ball consistently behind one of the nation's best offensive lines. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy didn't throw the ball a lot because he didn't have to -- completing 7 of 8 passes -- but he showcased his ability to run. Even though Michigan's situation has changed -- as off-campus sign-stealing allegations have turned into a rules violation, according to the Big Ten -- CFP executive director Bill Hancock told ESPN the committee will continue to evaluate the Wolverines like any other team. The group has always considered when key players or coaches are missing for injury, illness or suspension. Would the fact that the Wolverines found a way to win without their head coach actually help them in the debate?
Why they could stay No. 3: This is the more likely scenario because Ohio State and Georgia both have résumés that include two top-25 wins. Saturday's 24-15 victory at Penn State is Michigan's lone win against a CFP Top 25 team so far. Ohio State and Michigan both played Penn State in similar fashion with a similar score, as the Buckeyes beat PSU 20-12. Both Ohio State and Michigan established they were clearly better than Penn State, but neither won in the convincing way both teams have dispatched with lesser teams.
4. Washington Huskies (10-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 5
Why they could move up: The committee has thought all along that there isn't much separation between Washington and Florida State. "Not to be funny," Corrigan said last week, "but you can't get much closer than 4 to 5 in what we're doing." They've talked about these two teams a lot, and Washington answered two of their major questions against Utah -- beating a ranked opponent while playing stingy defense in the process. The committee pointed to Washington allowing at least 30 points in back-to-back wins against USC and Stanford, but the Huskies pitched a shutout in the second half on Saturday against Utah. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has wowed the room, and he will do so again after two passing touchdowns and one rushing.
Why they could stay at No. 5: Because the records are the same, and both Washington and FSU had to dig deep to win. Utah scored on four straight possessions at one point in the first half. Possibly the biggest gaffe of the day was by Washington linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala, who returned an interception 76 yards before dropping the ball at the 1-yard line on his way into the end zone, resulting in a turnover. Not that the committee would penalize Washington for one player's inexplicable mistake, but it's certainly something "to learn from," as Huskies coach Kalen DeBoer said after the game.
5. Florida State Seminoles (10-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 4
Why they could move down: The selection committee pays attention to how teams perform in wins, and Florida State struggled to distance itself from a respectable but unranked Miami team. It was the fourth time this season FSU trailed in the second half. The Seminoles' pedestrian performance came on a day when Washington beat a top-20 Utah team, giving the Huskies' résumé a much-needed boost. While other contenders are facing some of their toughest competition, Florida State probably won't play another ranked opponent until the ACC championship game. The Noles' best wins are against Clemson and LSU, while Washington's victories against Oregon trumps both of those -- and now the Huskies add Utah.
Why they could stay at No. 4: The selection committee does consider the emotions and intangibles that accompany playing in a rivalry game, and while Miami was unranked, it wasn't a surprise to see the talented Hurricanes giving FSU their best shot. Washington also has struggled in wins, which is why it has been sitting on the four-team bubble. The committee wasn't impressed with how fortunate Washington was to beat Arizona State and Stanford. That hasn't changed.
6. Oregon Ducks (9-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 6
Why they could stay at No. 6: It's unlikely Oregon would ascend with five undefeated Power 5 teams above them -- including Washington, which beat the Ducks. The committee has had Oregon as its top one-loss team partly because of its win against Utah "and the balance of the top-five offense and top-15 defense," Corrigan said. While the Trojans earned their points on Saturday as they typically do, Oregon's defense continued to make critical stops. Even though USC is an unranked, four-loss team that recently fired its defensive coordinator, the Trojans are never an easy out with reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams leading the offense. Oregon didn't do anything to damage its playoff hopes, but it also wasn't the kind of win that would catapult the Ducks ahead of any undefeated teams right now. As good as Oregon has looked, other contenders like Alabama and Texas have slowly built more impressive résumés.
7. Texas Longhorns (9-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 7
Why they could move up: It's hard to imagine the Longhorns moving up following a win against 4-5 TCU -- especially since they didn't earn any promotion last week after beating No. 23 Kansas State. They've won four straight since losing to rival Oklahoma on Oct. 7, though, and two of those victories have come on the road. While Texas hasn't defeated any other ranked opponents during that stretch, the Longhorns have avoided losing in trap games. The real question is whether Texas will ever move down in spite of the head-to-head win over Alabama. Because the Crimson Tide is playing so well, the door for debate opens.
Why they could stay at No. 7: The 34-24 head-to-head win on Sept. 9 at Alabama should keep them ahead of the Tide, for now. The Longhorns' résumé isn't too different from Alabama's, as both have three wins against CFP Top 25 teams.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 8
Why they could move up: Alabama has three wins against CFP Top 25 teams and now looks capable of beating anyone, including Texas should they meet again in a semifinal. (Yeah, think about that possibility.) Tide head coach Nick Saban talked Saturday about his players' willingness to listen to the coaches to do what was asked to improve, and it has shown. Quarterback Jalen Milroe accounted for six touchdowns against Kentucky, including three passing and three rushing. "Jalen Milroe has continued to come on," Corrigan said, "and all credit to Coach Saban and what they've done down there at Alabama." The committee "doesn't project," but Alabama is now guaranteed a chance to impress the group with a conference championship.
Why they could stay at No. 8: The double-digit loss at home to Texas still happened, and as long as the Longhorns and the Tide have a similar record, it's likely the selection committee will continue to honor the head-to-head matchup. "Texas has the win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa," Corrigan said, "which is a significant game overall this season as we look at that."
9. Louisville Cardinals (9-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 11
Why they could move up: Following losses by Ole Miss and Penn State on Saturday, the Cardinals could rise as one of four remaining one-loss Power 5 teams in the CFP Top 25. While one-loss Tulane is leading the race for a New Year's Six bowl bid as the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, it's unrealistic to think the Green Wave have a shot at the top four at this point. Louisville is the lowest ranked team that still has any hope, and only because the Cardinals have the potential to finish as a one-loss ACC champ with a top-five win against Florida State in the ACC title game. Even that might not be enough. Louisville was fortunate to beat Virginia on Thursday night, after the Cavaliers scored 21 unanswered points in the third quarter and led 24-17 in the fourth.
Why they could stay the same: Louisville only has one win against a ranked opponent this season -- three-loss Notre Dame -- and it suffered an embarrassing 38-21 loss at Pitt, which is now 2-8. Historically, it's been hard for the committee to overlook a bad loss like that, and Louisville's triumph against Notre Dame isn't enough to compensate for it. Louisville is on this list because it still has a shot at the CFP, but it wouldn't be surprising at all if a two-loss team -- Ole Miss, Penn State, Oregon State or Missouri -- was ranked ahead of it on Tuesday.