Following his team's come-from-behind 35-16 win at Rutgers on Saturday, Ohio State coach Ryan Day said he's not concerned about being ranked No. 1 right now or on Tuesday when the College Football Playoff selection committee releases its second of six rankings.
The top spot today, he said, "means absolutely nothing."
"Our goal is to be the No. 1 team at the end of the year," Day said. "All it means [now] is it's a good start, and we know we're going to take everybody's best shot."
Unranked Rutgers certainly did, jumping out to a 9-7 halftime lead, raising questions about whether the Buckeyes will hang on to the committee's top spot for the second straight week. With No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Florida State all winning, it's possible the top four stays status quo, but the committee does a deeper dive than simply ranking the teams based on whether they win.
How they win matters. Just ask No. 5 Washington, whose Oct. 14 victory against Oregon is the best in the country but wasn't enough for the Huskies to crack the initial top four because of pedestrian performances in subsequent wins against Arizona State and Stanford.
This week, Ohio State beat a much-improved Rutgers team on the road -- a week after winning at Wisconsin -- but the game was closer than the final score indicated.
"You're in the meat of it, so every time you go on the road -- back-to-back physical weeks -- you have to bring it," Day said. "It isn't just, you just roll your helmets out there and think you're going to win a game. It doesn't work that way. I think our guys understand that. You got to finish. You just never know how these games are going to go. You've got to be able to respond to whatever comes your way. That's what championship teams do; they continue to, week after week, have the stamina to find a way to win."
The thing is, Georgia did it too -- at home against the committee's No. 12 team, Missouri.
Flip a coin as to whether the committee will flip Ohio State and Georgia; that's how close the debate will likely be.
Here's an instant prediction following Saturday's games for who will move up or move down among the top 12 and what needs to happen the rest of this season for each of those teams to reach the playoff.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (9-0)
Previous CFP rank: 2
Why they could move up: The Bulldogs improved their résumé with the win against No. 12 Mizzou on Saturday. Meanwhile, last week's CFP No. 1 Ohio State, which beat an unranked Rutgers team (6-3), had one of its best victories -- against Notre Dame -- somewhat devalued when the Fighting Irish suffered their third loss at Clemson. Georgia found a way to win again without injured tight end Brock Bowers, and its defense won the turnover battle. The committee might just deem Georgia a better team, period.
Why they could stay No. 2: Like Ohio State, Georgia had to overcome a first-half deficit and rely on its defense. It didn't help Georgia that Florida lost at home to Arkansas, the Gators' fourth defeat of the season. One of the reasons Georgia was No. 2 is that the committee valued its wins against Kentucky and Florida, which were better than anything Michigan had on its résumé but still not as good as what Ohio State had posted. It's also unclear how much the committee will truly value Saturday's win against the Tigers until it reveals where Mizzou is ranked following the loss.
Path to playoff: If Georgia doesn't move up this week, it will have ample opportunity in each of the next two weeks with back-to-back games against ranked opponents in No. 10 Ole Miss at home and at No. 17 Tennessee. As long as Georgia wins the SEC East, it will have a shot at the top four; but if the Bulldogs don't win the SEC, their playoff fate will be up for debate.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 1
Why they could move down: For a half, Ohio State didn't pass the so-called eye test, going 0-for-5 on third down. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., whom committee chair Boo Corrigan specifically mentioned last week as having impressed his group, was held to four catches for 25 yards for the game. All against a one-dimensional team Rutgers coach Greg Schiano called "a work in progress." And as good as the Buckeyes' defense was, it was also the first time in the past four games it allowed more than 260 yards. If the committee flips Ohio State and Georgia this week, its biggest justification would likely be that the Bulldogs simply played better.
Why they could stay No. 1: Even with Notre Dame's loss, the Irish could still be a top-25 team. If they are, the Buckeyes boast the best résumé in the country as an unbeaten team with two top-25 wins (Notre Dame and Penn State). Ohio State's defense, also lauded by Corrigan last week, still hasn't allowed any opponent more than 17 points this season.
Path to playoff: Avoid a home upset against Minnesota on Nov. 18 and win the regular-season finale at Michigan. Ohio State finished in the top four last year without winning the Big Ten East because its victories against Penn State and Notre Dame impressed the committee -- and because USC fell out of the fourth spot after losing to Utah in its conference title game. If Ohio State doesn't win the Big Ten this year, it's going to have a much more difficult time proving to the committee it is "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country -- especially if Florida State is still undefeated, Texas finishes as a one-loss conference champion, the SEC champ is in and the Pac-12 has a one-loss champ.
3. Michigan Wolverines (9-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 3
Why they could stay No. 3: Michigan's strength of schedule, which was ranked No. 112 entering Saturday's game against unranked Purdue, will continue to hold it back. "It's a factor in what we're looking at," Corrigan said last week. "Again, when you can point to -- from a Georgia standpoint -- Florida and Kentucky, with Ohio State when you can point to Penn State, the win at Notre Dame, the win at Wisconsin, while UNLV, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota are good wins, I think looking at it in total, even with the dominance offensively and defensively, defensively giving up about six points a game, it really turned the committee's head from that standpoint, but that was the reason they came in at third." None of that changed on Saturday against Purdue.
Path to playoff: Win the East division and the Big Ten. As good as Michigan has been this season, it likely won't have enough statement wins on its résumé to finish in the top four if it doesn't beat Ohio State and Penn State. They are the only two ranked opponents Michigan will face during the regular season. The Wolverines' nonconference wins were against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green -- all unranked Group of 5 teams that they beat at home. A victory against another ranked opponent in the Big Ten championship game would cement a spot in the top four.
4. Florida State Seminoles (9-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 4
Why they could stay No. 4: In addition to the road win versus Pitt, the Seminoles' résumé got a slight boost on Saturday when Clemson beat Notre Dame. Florida State's overtime win at Clemson on Sept. 23 has been devalued since the Tigers have racked up four losses, but the Noles need whatever scheduling help they can get. FSU was able to pull away from the Panthers in spite of playing without two injured starting wide receivers, and it is passing the eye test with its defense and quarterback Jordan Travis.
Why they could move down: The committee could have a good discussion about moving up Washington after its win against USC. The Seminoles' victory versus LSU also took a slight hit after it lost to Alabama and now has three losses.
Path to playoff: The Seminoles already have clinched a spot in the ACC title game, and if they finish as an undefeated ACC champ, they are likely in. FSU could be under pressure, though, to finish as an undefeated ACC champ. Louisville is the only other team from the league currently ranked by the committee, and the Cardinals and Seminoles don't play each other during the regular season. FSU also doesn't face any other ranked opponents during the regular season, as the Noles finish with Miami, FCS school North Alabama and Florida.
5. Washington Huskies (9-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 5
Why they could stay No. 5: The head-to-head win over Oregon will still matter as long as the Huskies are undefeated, and while Saturday's road win against USC was important, their defense did surrender 42 points. It was the second straight game Washington's defense allowed more than 30 points. The committee had Washington at No. 5 last week because of flat performances in wins against unranked opponents Arizona State and Stanford. Corrigan said last week those games "gave us some pause." It's also possible that USC drops out of the top 25 this week, giving the Huskies just one win against a CFP top-25 opponent.
Why they could move up: Washington's win against Oregon is the best in the country, and a double-digit triumph against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner on the Trojans' home turf could be the boost the Huskies need. It also came on a day when Florida State's best win -- against LSU -- lost some luster and as the Seminoles took a while to separate from unranked Pitt.
Path to playoff: Finish no worse than a one-loss Pac-12 champ. With Ohio State and Michigan still having to play each other, at least one undefeated team above the Huskies is guaranteed a loss. Washington has some margin for error with back-to-back games looming against ranked opponents in Utah and Oregon State. It's possible Washington faces Oregon for a second time in the conference title game.
6. Oregon Ducks (8-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 6
Why they could stay No. 6: Because none of the undefeated teams ranked ahead of them lost, and the win against Cal didn't boost the Ducks' résumé. Oregon should remain the committee's top one-loss team because of how dominant it has been, including on Saturday against a scrappy Cal team that gave USC fits. Still, it's unlikely even a lopsided win against a 3-6 Cal team will do anything to push the Ducks ahead of any undefeated teams at this point. Oregon's only victory versus a ranked opponent so far was against Utah, which continues to look good after the Utes beat Arizona State soundly on Saturday.
Path to playoff: Run the table and finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champ. The ideal scenario for the Ducks would be to beat an undefeated Washington team to clinch the title, showing the committee they can defeat a top-five team while simultaneously avenging the regular-season loss.
7. Texas Longhorns (8-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 7
Why they could stay No. 7: The Longhorns avoided an upset at home against defending Big 12 champion Kansas State, and that represents an impressive win in the committee meeting room, even if the three-loss Wildcats drop out of the top 25 this week. Texas hasn't looked better, though, than Oregon, which should remain the committee's top one-loss team. The selection committee likely will still honor the Longhorns' head-to-head result against Alabama, which remains the best nonconference win of the season, especially after the Crimson Tide's win against LSU on Saturday. While there was some consternation outside of the committee meeting room last week about the group disregarding the Longhorns' loss to the rival Sooners, Oklahoma's defeat at Oklahoma State on Saturday helped validate the move, as their records are no longer comparable.
Path to playoff: Finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion and hope the win at Alabama is enough to separate it from another Power 5 conference champ. It would help Texas significantly if Alabama wins the SEC. With only four semifinalists, one Power 5 champion will obviously be snubbed, so Texas would be in a more favorable position if it's not competing against undefeated champs. The most vulnerable undefeated team is Florida State, as its best win is against now-three-loss LSU. If the Noles slip up, the committee could justify taking Texas instead.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 8
Why they could stay No. 8: The Tide has made noticeable strides since losing at home on Sept. 9 to Texas, but it would be surprising to see Alabama bumped ahead of the Longhorns, who beat Alabama by double digits and have the same record. The win against LSU was important -- especially since the Tigers are a common opponent with Florida State. Common opponents are one of the factors the committee considers when comparing teams with similar records. Saturday's victory kept the Tide in the lead in the SEC West with their most difficult games behind them.
Why they could move up: With the win against LSU, Alabama now has three top-25 wins: against Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU. Alabama's best wins are better than the Longhorns' -- save for one, of course. If it weren't for the loss to Texas, that résumé would rival or better any of the undefeated teams.
Path to playoff: Alabama has quietly built a playoff résumé that would all but guarantee the Tide a spot in the top four if it can punctuate it with the SEC title. With games against Kentucky, Chattanooga and Auburn remaining -- all unranked teams -- Alabama should be a heavy favorite in each on the way to Atlanta.
9. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 10
Why they could move up: Because Oklahoma, which was one spot ahead last week, lost to Oklahoma State and naturally will sink, while the Rebels avoided being upset by visiting Texas A&M.
Path to playoff: Prayer. Since Ole Miss lost at Alabama on Sept. 23, the Rebels would need the Tide to fall twice this month in order to secure the SEC West crown. ESPN's Football Power Index gives Alabama at least an 82% chance to win each of its remaining games, and only two of them are against SEC opponents (Nov. 11 at Kentucky and Nov. 25 at Auburn).
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 11
Why they could move up: Attrition. Oklahoma's loss is also the Nittany Lions' gain, coupled with their convincing win at Maryland on Saturday. This also helps Ohio State, giving the Buckeyes a top-10 CFP win.
Path to playoff: Run the table -- including beating Michigan at home on Saturday -- hope Michigan beats Ohio State, miraculously win a convoluted Big Ten tiebreaker then win the Big Ten title game. Even that might not be enough, as PSU's nonconference victories were against West Virginia, Delaware and UMass. Even if the Lions beat Michigan, that would be their lone regular-season win against a top-25 team. The Big Ten East champ might not play a ranked opponent in the Big Ten title game, and PSU would desperately need that. So you're saying there's a chance ...
11. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
Previous CFP rank: No. 9
Why they could move down: The loss to Oklahoma State eliminated the Sooners from the playoff race, considering they weren't even the committee's top one-loss team last week and they were ranked behind a Texas team they beat. They might, however, be the top two-loss team on Tuesday because the win against Texas is still one of the best in the country; it also represents OU's only victory against a ranked opponent.
12. Louisville Cardinals (8-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 13
Why they could move up: Missouri now has two losses. Period. The same can be said for the Sooners, but their win against Texas could keep them ahead of Louisville.
Why they could stay No. 13: Louisville's best win is against Notre Dame, which just lost to Clemson. The committee could debate whether Mizzou should remain ahead of the Cardinals on Tuesday, even though the Tigers now have two losses. Mizzou's defeats came against ranked opponents LSU and Georgia, while Louisville had a bad loss at Pitt. Both teams saw their best wins take a hit, though, as Missouri's victory against Kansas State was devalued after Texas knocked off the Wildcats on Saturday.
Path to playoff: It's highly unlikely but not impossible. The path of least resistance is for Louisville to beat Virginia on Saturday and have North Carolina lose to Duke. Louisville would be considered for the playoff if it can finish as a one-loss ACC champ with a win against undefeated Florida State, which already has clinched a spot in the ACC title game. It's doubtful, though, that it would impress the committee enough to unseat another Power 5 champ that has played better against a stronger schedule and doesn't have a bad loss.