Last year, Ohio State's wins against Penn State and Notre Dame were enough to push the Buckeyes into the College Football Playoff without beating Michigan or winning the Big Ten East.
Even with the same résumé, repeating that feat could prove difficult this season.
With four undefeated teams remaining (Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State) and three one-loss teams heading to their respective conference championship games (Texas, Alabama and Oregon), Ohio State will need some help to reach the CFP after losing The Game.
Again.
When asked about his team's playoff chances following the loss, Ohio State coach Ryan Day wasn't entire sure what they were up against in the other conferences.
"I think we have a very good team," he said. "We came up short today and it's devastating, but I believe in our players. I think we have a veteran team, I think we have a team that is solid in all three phases. I'd have to see what else is out there."
That's exactly what the committee will do on Selection Day.
If there are multiple upsets in Power 5 conference championship games, Ohio State will still have a shot -- just as it did last season after USC lost to Utah in the Pac-12 title game and dropped out of the fourth spot. How far Ohio State falls in Tuesday's ranking will reveal how much help the Buckeyes will need this year.
Here's a prediction for Tuesday's penultimate CFP ranking, including where Ohio State might wind up:
1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)
Previous CFP rank: 1
Next game: Dec. 2 vs. Alabama, SEC championship
Why they could be ranked here: Georgia still gives the selection committee the best combination of résumé and eye test, with three wins against CFP top 25 teams in the past four games. No. 9 Mizzou, No. 12 Ole Miss and No. 21 Tennessee all won this week, which continues to help Georgia's playoff résumé. The Bulldogs took care of business against unranked rival Georgia Tech, and while it won't do much to impress the committee on a day Michigan defeated No. 2 Ohio State, Georgia's overall body of work will likely keep it at the top. Georgia is one win and an SEC title away from locking up a top-four spot. If the Bulldogs lose a close game to Alabama, Georgia wouldn't be a guarantee without a conference title -- especially if the Pac-12 champion, Big Ten champion and ACC champion are all undefeated. That fourth spot could come down to a debate between Georgia and Big 12 champion Texas, and the Longhorns would have something Georgia did not -- a win against SEC champion Alabama.
2. Michigan Wolverines (12-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 3
Next game: Dec. 2 vs. Iowa, Big Ten championship
Why they could be ranked here: Michigan now has two (potentially) top-10 wins -- Ohio State and Penn State -- and has won two of its past three games on the road. The Wolverines played another complete game on Saturday, beating their rivals with smart playcalling from acting head coach Sherrone Moore, and an aggressive defense. The selection committee will consider that the Wolverines were able to win without coach Jim Harbaugh, who was suspended for his third straight game, and they overcame injuries to key players, including veteran offensive lineman Zak Zinter and cornerback Will Johnson. Michigan could certainly make a case as the nation's No. 1 team, but Georgia's résumé is still stronger.
3. Washington Huskies (12-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 4
Next game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon, Pac-12 championship
Why they could be ranked here: The Huskies were fortunate to beat rival Washington State on a last-second field goal, but they should move up a notch at the expense of Ohio State dropping down. The head-to-head win against Oregon still matters to the selection committee, and Washington should be a no-brainer for the playoff as an undefeated Pac-12 champion if it beats the Ducks twice. There's also a slim possibility that they could both finish in the top four should Oregon win the Pac-12 title game and if upsets happen elsewhere. Washington could claim a regular-season win against the Pac-12 champs -- just like TCU did against K-State last year in the Big 12 race. TCU finished in the top four without winning the league in large part because of its regular-season win against the Wildcats. In order for both Washington and Oregon to get in, though, three-loss Oklahoma State would have to win the Big 12, and Georgia would have to win the SEC and eliminate Alabama. A one-loss Huskies team would likely need one more upset -- either Iowa winning the Big Ten, or Louisville winning the ACC.
4. Oregon Ducks (11-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 6
Next game: Dec. 1 vs. Washington, Pac-12 championship
Why they could be ranked here: This would be less about résumé and more about the committee simply believing Oregon is a better team than both Florida State and Ohio State right now. Oregon's only win against a ranked CFP team came on Friday night against No. 16 Oregon State. Quarterback Bo Nix may have had a Heisman moment at the end of the first half, while on Saturday Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord threw two interceptions in the biggest game of his career. If Oregon beats Washington to win the Pac-12, avenging the regular-season loss to the Huskies, the Ducks would be a virtual lock for the top four.
5. Florida State Seminoles (12-0)
Previous CFP rank: No. 5
Next game: Dec. 2 vs. Louisville, ACC championship
Why they could be ranked here: FSU is still undefeated after finding a way to beat rival Florida, but it's clear the Seminoles aren't as potent offensively with backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker. At one point early in the game, FSU had racked up more penalty yards than total yards. If FSU drops behind Oregon, it would be because the committee deems the Ducks better. Florida State's résumé includes wins against LSU and Clemson, which are both currently top 25 teams. It didn't help FSU that Louisville lost to Kentucky, as the Noles probably won't have a top-10 opponent to face in the ACC championship game. But if Florida State can finish as an undefeated ACC champ, it's going to be extremely difficult for the committee to exclude FSU from the top four -- even without injured starting quarterback Jordan Travis. Clearly, though, they have to keep Rodemaker healthy. The Noles got a scare when Rodemaker's helmet was sandwiched between two defenders on Saturday.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 2
Next game: N/A
Why they could be ranked here: Ohio State lost a close game on the road to its rival, and while it was devastating to its fans and those within the program, the loss was to a top-four team, which is better than the Longhorns' loss to rival Oklahoma. Ohio State is still one of the most talented teams in the country, with receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and running back TreVeyon Henderson leading the way. The Buckeyes couldn't stop the run, though, and lost the turnover battle. Ohio State's wins against Penn State and Notre Dame should still keep the Buckeyes ahead of the Longhorns for now, but if Texas wins the Big 12 while the Buckeyes are at home, that will likely change.
7. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 7
Next game: Dec. 2 vs. Oklahoma State, Big 12 championship
Why they could be ranked here: Nothing has changed to impact how the Longhorns are viewed in the committee meeting room -- at least not yet. They scored 47 unanswered points over the final three quarters to earn a convincing win against unranked Texas Tech. The Week 2 head-to-head win at Alabama should give Texas the edge in the fifth ranking, especially as Alabama was fortunate to beat rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Texas will need a convincing win against three-loss Oklahoma State to impress the committee because the Big 12 is the lowest-ranked Power 5 conference. Even with Louisville's loss to Kentucky on Saturday, Oklahoma State will probably be the lowest-ranked opponent a CFP contender faces in a conference championship game. (Iowa is currently ranked higher than the Cowboys). The question is if a Big 12 title will be enough to catapult Texas into the top four, but Florida State struggling certainly helps the Longhorns' chances -- should the Seminoles lose in the ACC title game.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Previous CFP rank: No. 8
Next game: Dec. 2 vs. Georgia, SEC championship
Why they could be ranked here: Nobody in the country will have a better opportunity to impress the selection committee in a conference title game than Alabama. A narrow win against Auburn will keep the Tide in the conversation, but they will still be stuck behind Texas because of the loss to the Longhorns. If Alabama beats Georgia and Texas wins the Big 12, they could finish in the top four together if there's an upset in the ACC championship game, but it could be a controversial decision if there's only room for one. That scenario could unfold if undefeated conference champions Michigan and Florida State join the Pac-12 champion and the fourth spot is open.