Two centers that will be discussed throughout the college basketball season and into June are Purdue's Zach Edey and UConn's Donovan Clingan. Edey, the 2022-23 consensus National Player of the Year, will be trying to carve out a niche in today's NBA as a Boban Marjanovic-style situational reserve. On the other hand, Clingan has the impact defensively to potentially be a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA draft.
In this week's notebook, NBA draft experts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo look at the strengths and weaknesses of Edey and Clingan so far this season, what we learned from Bronny James' USC debut and if Cody Williams' wrist injury will impact his draft stock.
What are the chances an old-school center, such as Purdue's Zach Edey, can carve out a niche in the modern NBA?
One positive about being a specialized prospect is that having a shorter list of suitors can often mean you land somewhere you're wanted. At this stage in NBA history, most teams won't just default into drafting massive post-up-centric centers because they're broadly useful -- to take a player in that mold, a team has to play a certain style and have a vision for how to make them fit. That principle likely bodes well for Edey, who's having a great senior season at Purdue and will be a fascinating case study to monitor as the 2024 draft nears. There are plenty of teams that have little to no desire to invest in more traditional centers, but Edey has broken convention to the point that more open-minded front offices have to strongly consider him -- potentially toward the end of the first round and most likely as a Boban Marjanovic-style situational reserve.
I watched a good Edey performance in person last week as Purdue beat Iowa 87-68 in West Lafayette. His 25 points and 12 rebounds were the difference in the game as he largely had his way with an undersized and relatively unathletic Hawkeyes frontline. He followed that up with a 35-point showing against a faster, more physical Alabama team over the weekend. We've come to expect these type of stat lines from the 7-4 Edey, who has evolved into college basketball's most reliable star over the past few years. His talent level isn't the question here -- his future success is simply a matter of what type of role it would take for a player that large and singular to become a consistent net positive in an NBA that relies so often on uptempo play.
At this point, Edey isn't going to be a great fit for teams that want to get up and down and play fast. He has worked himself into excellent shape and has good base athleticism for his size; however, his foot speed is unlikely to improve -- he can run the floor and play for long stretches, but he's not especially fast. He's more likely a situational reserve for that reason -- someone a team can use during stretches to try to change the style of play, but not the type of big a team would necessarily feature in a starting five. Edey has gotten better at punishing teams on the dive and as a massive screening presence. He occupies a lot of space as an offensive rebounder, though he doesn't always pursue the ball well out of his area.
Purdue guard Fletcher Loyer drops in a smooth and-1 and Zach Edey shows his love from the bench.
Alabama tried to make life difficult for Edey, working to prevent clean, deep post catches most of the game, but he was still effective and mostly got what he wanted in the 92-86 win. It's worth noting that Edey will likely never see this level of schematic attention from defenses -- in the NBA, surrounding him with shooters enables easier one-on-one touches for him around the rim, where he has excellent touch and has become a reliable finisher. He has gotten much better at feeling pressure and accurately kicking the ball back out to shooters. But, as with most post-up-centric players, the question becomes: To what end?
Defensively, Edey will have to play in drop coverage and try to keep the ball in front of him -- he's not going to be switchable, and there will be matchups in which he gets played off the floor. While not a prolific shot-blocker in terms of covering outside his area, he does have a physical presence on the floor and serves as a deterrent for drivers in the paint. If a team surrounds him with big, athletic defenders, it's possible he can hold up for stretches and his team can win those minutes.
Other things working in Edey's favor: He's a good free throw shooter for a center and has developed into a tough, focused competitor who plays extremely hard. His confidence and assertiveness has notably grown over the past few years, and he probably plays through more contact than any college basketball player, as referees can't call every foul, and other teams constantly try to make things physical for him. Evaluating Edey ultimately has more to do with your own preference, and whether you believe a player in his mold can not only hold up (and stay healthy long term) in the modern league, but also warrant a team investing draft capital. While projecting a place for Edey in the NBA requires a good deal of vision, he has enough traits to provide value later in the draft if a team creates a role that suits his strengths. -- Jeremy Woo
What about UConn's Donovan Clingan? Have his struggles versus top competition he has faced thus far hurt his standing at all?
Playing a compact role in 13 minutes per game behind Final Four Most Outstanding Player Adama Sanogo, Clingan was one of the most productive players in college basketball last season on a per-minute basis, averaging an outstanding 21 points, 17.2 rebounds and 5.5 blocks per 40 minutes.
With Sanogo off to the pro ranks, Clingan has stepped into the starting lineup as a projected preseason All-American. He has been very effective against low-level competition but hasn't looked like a potential top-10 pick in the four games UConn has played versus top-100 opponents, scoring 30 points on 10-for-21 shooting with 22 rebounds and 8 blocks in 95 minutes.
Suffering a variety of ailments (foot and toe injuries, respiratory illness compounded by asthma) over the past two months, Clingan hasn't looked quite as mobile getting up and down the floor and especially finishing around the basket as he did in UConn's NCAA tournament run last year, posting just one dunk in the four "real" games UConn has played thus far. By comparison, Clingan converted 54 dunks in 511 minutes last season, or one every 9½ minutes (he's down to one dunk every 19 minutes this season).
Donovan Clingan gets the block and bucket on the other end
As UConn continues to round into form offensively, and Clingan hopefully improves his conditioning being further removed from injuries, NBA scouts will look to see if Clingan can continue to show more translatable offense, not just relying on brute size and strength to overpower overmatched opponents.
That will be important because Clingan hasn't shown notable improvement with shooting range (0-for-3 from 3) or free throw shooting (51%, down slightly from last year). He has made some strides with his passing, finding cutters from beyond the arc, out-of-post doubles and short rolls for easy baskets, which is a welcome sign. Clingan's impact on the interior defensively is why he continues to be regarded as a potential top-10 pick.
Likely to measure around 7-3 in shoes with a 7-7 wingspan, a source told ESPN, Clingan is one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball. While not blessed with blazing speed, he does a good job of turning his hips and rotating to protect the rim, and is very difficult to shoot over when in position to make a play. He has shown some flashes of ability stepping out on the perimeter in pick-and-roll situations but still has work to improve as he has his fair share of clumsy moments covering ground in space.
Clingan and UConn have another significant nonconference matchup with Gonzaga on Friday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN2) before entering Big East play. Ultimately, the way he performs in March will surely be what's remembered most vividly from this season. -- Jonathan Givony
What did you learn from Bronny James' debut?
James made his much-anticipated debut Sunday in USC's home loss to Long Beach State, dropping the Trojans to a concerning 5-4 on the season.
Limited by the medical staff to 16 minutes after suffering cardiac arrest less than five months ago, James showed some of the ways he'll be able to help USC with his defense, spot shooting and unselfishness -- all areas the team has struggled with this season.
While already looking like USC's best defender, it was surprising to see James not get a turn at slowing down Long Beach's Marcus Tsohonis, who lit up upperclassmen Boogie Ellis and Kobe Johnson for 28 points in 27 minutes.
James' ability to get over screens, contain opponents one-on-one and cover ground seamlessly for steals and chasedown blocks stood out in his limited time on the floor. He is still figuring out where to be in USC's schemes, and gave up a costly blowby in overtime that led to a dunk, but overall he looked far ahead of expectations as a freshman playing his first college basketball game.
Bronny James does his best impression of his father, LeBron, with a chasedown block for the USC Trojans.
Offensively, James is much more of a work in progress. He looked quite passive by relinquishing opportunities to push the ball in the open court, was overly unselfish moving the ball around the perimeter and simply wasn't aggressive looking to score with huge swaths of space around him. Considering how long it has been since his last competitive game more than eight months ago, it's understandable to an extent, but James showed similar traits in high school at times as he's still figuring out how to put his imprint on games consistently.
USC embarks on a road trip to Alabama next week, where it will play at Auburn and then versus Alabama State in Montgomery as part of the Pac-12/SWAC Legacy Series.
With the Trojans' NCAA tournament hopes fading due to their lack of discipline defensively and style of play that's heavy on one-on-one, it will be interesting to see how quickly they look to integrate James, who will likely still need time to adjust to the steep increase in level of competition. The fact he has only a handful of practices under his belt means it will take time until we see him at his best. -- Givony
Colorado's Cody Williams is back on the upswing and ranked No. 4 in our ESPN Top 100 rankings. What have scouts seen from him, and how will his wrist injury impact his draft stock?
Williams emerged as an early candidate for the No. 1 pick, debuting at No. 2 in our first 2024 mock draft last February. Uneven showings at the Nike Hoop Summit in April and the FIBA U19 World Cup in July made NBA scouts question his standing as a top-shelf prospect, but his strong play for Colorado in the first month of the college season has him right back in the mix for consideration as one of the best long-term prospects in the class.
A contingent of roughly 20 NBA executives descended on Brooklyn on Sunday to get a closer look at Colorado's matchup with Miami, a game Williams was ruled out of just minutes before tipoff because of a wrist injury. Unfortunately for Williams, and NBA scouts, he'll be out of action for approximately one month, a source told ESPN, but will have at least two months of Pac-12 and postseason play to continue to build on his strong momentum.
Tasked with the significant responsibility of playing point guard for long stretches, Williams has brought a level of aggressiveness and confidence that was sorely lacking in previous settings. He has been outstanding attacking in the open floor, in particular using his tremendous size (6-foot-8 in shoes), long strides, excellent footwork, and impressive creativity and touch as a finisher to convert an excellent 63% of his 2-point attempts on the season while getting to the free throw line at an acceptable rate.
He's also bringing a high-intensity level defending the opposing team's best scorer on most nights, especially smaller guards, where his size and 7-foot-1 wingspan is difficult to deal with.
Even if Williams is not the most explosive athlete in this class, he has had some impressive finishes thus far jumping from outside the paint off one or two feet, while using his size and solid feel for the game rejecting screens, attacking closeouts and driving with his head up looking to dish.
He has also shown some flashes of stepping into open jumpers with solid mechanics, although not very prolifically, hitting 6-for-10 from 3, a major question mark for him entering the season.
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His ballhandling and shot creation is still a work in progress, as he has struggled in pick-and-roll and isolation situations, as well as shooting off the dribble, areas in which he'll have to grow significantly to emerge as a more prolific offensive option.
A late-bloomer, Williams is at an early stage of development and is still coming into his own with his frame and lack of experience, weighing 180 pounds this past July and turning 19 on Nov. 20. There's a level of projection involved in anticipating his full potential long term, but the early results have been promising thus far, as he's clearly in an ideal situation being surrounded by veterans with plenty of responsibility as a primary offensive option.
We'll see how Williams comes back from his wrist injury, but his early play has him earmarked as one of a half-dozen or so candidates vying for the top spots in the draft. -- Givony
Is there a place in the modern NBA for defensive-minded specialists who are not prolific outside shooters, such as Virginia's Ryan Dunn?
Nine games into his sophomore season, Dunn has been trending up, stepping into a bigger role on an 8-1 Virginia team and emerging as one of the best defensive players in college basketball. A late-blooming prospect who underwent a 6-inch growth spurt during high school, there's little doubt at this point that Dunn has what it takes to be an excellent defender at the NBA level. At 6-8 with plus length and an excellent frame, Dunn projects to guard all over the floor, wielding tools that should enable him to keep up with top perimeter scorers. He's a great run-jump athlete who can disrupt passing lanes, keep up at the point of attack and challenge shots playing in help. He has 22 steals and 23 blocks already this season, made more impressive in the context of Virginia's preferred slower, low-possession style.
Dunn also rates among the most impactful Division I players according to the box plus-minus catch-all stat, and moved up to No. 12 on our ESPN Top 100. With a combination of elite instincts and build, plus a visibly competitive approach, his defensive profile is especially bankable when it comes to projecting value at the NBA level -- the numbers and the eye test both support it -- and place him pretty safely in first-round territory if he continues to produce. The questions NBA front offices are asking will center heavily on Dunn's offense, with his progress as a scorer playing a role in exactly how high he might be drafted.
Dunn's offense is a work in progress, and it would be hard to confidently expect him to ever be a preferred high-usage NBA player just based on his profile. As a freshman playing a smaller role, Dunn was often reluctant to shoot jumpers, making 5-of-16 from 3 in 31 games. He has exhibited some growth this season through his willingness to shoot more, but he's just 4-of-19 from long range. His 71% clip from the foul line isn't necessarily inspiring. However, when Dunn does try to score in other ways, he's quite efficient: he's a career 67% shooter on 2-point attempts and a capable scorer in the paint, as a powerful leaper and dunker playing downhill off cuts and straight-line drives.
Ryan Dunn gets the steal and holds on as Virginia defeats No. 14 Texas A&M 59-47.
Mechanically, Dunn's shot isn't bad, and he has shown some flashes of comfort catching and shooting this season, notably in a win over Texas A&M, when he impacted the game positively away from the ball. Dunn has a good feel for his role and understands his limitations -- he rarely tries to do too much off the dribble and hardly ever takes a bad shot. It's hard to envision him adding value as an extra playmaker à la Herb Jones of the New Orleans Pelicans, but Dunn's tremendous defensive presence is going to incentivize teams to find minutes for him.
Teams will continue to closely monitor Dunn's offensive output, hoping to better understand his chances of making progress as a floor spacer, which seems to be the only thing holding him back from a valuable NBA role as a rookie. Based on what he has already done this season, I'd hope to see him get more long-range attempts up with confidence, rather than be too focused on the final percentages. At the very least, there's a strong possibility of a Matisse Thybulle-esque role, with room for more. As teams continue to build a comfort level with Dunn, considering his unique development trajectory and coming from a well-regarded program at Virginia, the odds he winds up hearing his name called in the lottery should continue to improve. -- Woo
Jonathan Givony's sleeper: Devin Carter | Providence
The son of 13-year NBA player and current Memphis Grizzlies assistant coach Anthony Carter, Devin Carter has been building his candidacy as a potential role-playing NBA point guard as a junior at Providence.
Carter is one of the best defensive guards in college basketball, showing incredible instincts both when generating turnovers and locking up opponents one-on-one. He posted a rare five-block outing against Oklahoma last week and is Providence's leading rebounder despite standing just 6-foot-3. Carter's versatility as a pick-and-roll defender, showing the ability to fight over screens and recover for rearview contests, give him a ready-made skill in the drop-heavy NBA.
Devin Carter knocks down the 3
Carter's offensive projection is a little more murky. He's not the most explosive or dynamic shot creator and doesn't have much of a midrange game. He's posting more turnovers than assists this season and is typically at his best when others create advantages for him while attacking closeouts or off screens. A 29% 3-point shooter entering this season, Carter has highly unorthodox shooting mechanics with a low and funky release that calls into question his strong 37% clip from 3 this season, especially because he's making just 66% of his free throws.
He has shown more dynamic shot-making prowess off the dribble than expected off movement, so if Carter's spot-up shooting holds up, a role for him as a De'Anthony Melton- or Dru Smith-type combo guard who wreaks havoc defensively and plays a complementary role alongside better shot creators is possible.
Carter will be higher on opposing scouting reports with the season he's having, which will shed plenty of insight into his outlook as an NBA prospect in Big East play.
Jeremy Woo's sleeper: Pelle Larsson | Arizona
It's hard to use the "sleeper" label when discussing a major player on one of the best teams in the country, but Arizona's Pelle Larsson has crept squarely onto the radar at the outset of his senior season. The 22-year-old Larsson made a name for himself as a teenager with the Swedish junior national team, but his college career has been more of a slow burn, starting at Utah before he transfered to play for Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats as a sophomore. He has seen his role gradually grow, averaging 12.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and three assists in 23 minutes through eight games this season.
Functioning in a versatile support role for the Wildcats, the 6-5 Larsson has proven essential. He gives Arizona additional size without sacrificing skill level on the perimeter while playing as the nominal 3-man next to Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell and giving them an additional steady decision-maker with the ball. While not a big-time scorer by trade, Larsson went a perfect 6-for-6 from the field over the weekend in a win against Wisconsin, making all four of his 3-point attempts on a big stage and looking like the type of winning utility player NBA teams tend to love bringing off the bench.
Arizona's Pelle Larsson finishes the layup plus the contact to extend Arizona's huge lead.
Larsson doesn't have one elite skill to hang his hat on, but the appeal is that he does supply above-average value in many areas. He's a good athlete, a solid passer and can play out of multiple spots on the perimeter without ever hijacking the offense. NBA teams would like to see him increase his 3-point volume, as he has averaged about two attempts per game in his career. Larsson is shooting 84% from the foul line and 39% from 3 during his college career with a shooting profile that at least offers room for optimism as teams project forward.
Larsson has more to prove moving forward on the defensive end, where his strength should help mitigate his average tools. He might not be someone you want switching onto a top scorer, but teams need to feel comfortable having him out there to hold his own, and there are capable NBA defenders who have found success with far more limited physical profiles than his. It should be hard for Arizona to keep him off the floor considering his all-around impact, and there's plenty of precedent for Swiss-Army-knife wings finding their niche in the league.
Larsson was invited to last year's G League Elite camp before an injury caused him to withdraw, and with the type of season he's having, a full combine invite could wind up on the docket, particularly with Arizona enjoying high-level success. Continuing to catch and shoot effectively will help Larsson make a solid case for himself, and any added progress in that area could push him firmly into draftability. -- Woo
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams.
Jeremy Woo is an NBA analyst specializing in prospect evaluation and the draft. He was previously a staff writer and draft insider at Sports Illustrated.