Rankings, contract projections for top 50 MLB free agents

Welcome to the offseason! I'll do just a quick rundown of what you need to know about these 2023-24 MLB free agent rankings and projections, since I think you'll likely scroll immediately to the players and then return back here when you have a question.

For simplicity, players are ranked in the order of their projected guaranteed contracts, not how good I think they are. The contract projections are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the aim is to try to predict what will happen -- not what I think the players are worth. When there's a notable debate to be had over length or total value of a contract, I'll note it in the blurb.

Seven players received the qualifying offer (a one-year, $20.325 million contract) this week and can choose to accept or decline it by Tuesday. They are all expected to turn it down, which means that if they leave their 2023 clubs, those teams will be entitled to draft pick compensation. The signing team would also lose some draft pick capital, but that price is slightly different depending on the revenue status of each club.

Two winters ago, teams set a record for free agent spending at $3.625 billion, then we set another mark last winter at $3.938 billion (by my math). Industry chatter is that this winter should see healthy spending once again, but the talent level of the group is notably down -- excepting the top-ranked player. I wouldn't expect record spending, but it is certainly on the table. On to the educated guesses!

1. Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH

2024 Opening Day age: 29

Projected Contract: 10 years, $520 million ($52M average annual value)

Ohtani's career has been a lesson in how foolish it is to assume the future for any one player will be linear. While he was in Japan, there was years-long buzz that he'd be the best player to come over to the United States in a long while. But by the spring training before his first MLB season after signing with the Los Angeles Angels, scouts had already turned on him. At season's end, he was a rookie phenom accomplishing things no other player had, but the questions continued when he started only 12 games on the mound in his first three seasons due to elbow surgery and was below replacement level in the shortened 2020 season.

Until the 2021-23 seasons, when he posted a combined 26.5 WAR and should end up with three straight top-two MVP finishes. I spoke to 26 industry insiders in May and they expected him to get over $500 million this winter; that projection moved to at least $550 million later in the season as he continued to stay hot. But there was a hiccup even within this incredible run. Ohtani had his second Tommy John surgery in October, taking some air out of the free agency hype.

Now you have to question his pitching contributions going forward, particularly with a long-term megadeal. We can assume (but not guarantee) he'll be a good pitcher again in 2025, but to maximize Ohtani's value, does he need to be on a hard innings count, or have planned breaks from pitching throughout the season, or be used in fewer but more important innings? Does that unsure pitching outlook totally change his long-term value?

I'm asking questions but not answering them because his career has been a roller coaster with highs so high that there aren't any comparables. There's some growing buzz that Ohtani will want to answer this question by signing a shorter deal, then pitching in 2025 (and maybe 2026) before hitting the market again to cash in, but also maximize his earnings this winter. This would mean signing for something like a six-year deal at a high AAV (let's say $55-60 million per year) with an opt-out or two that he intends on using.

For a long-term deal, I'll adjust down from the 12 years, $600 million that it seemed like we were headed toward pre-surgery but still keep my projection in the precedent-shattering megadeal area because Ohtani (1) is still pretty young; (2) diversifies your risk by being elite both ways with a road for a solid on-field ROI from either; and (3) has immense marketing value, unprecedented in this sport, that isn't diminishing anytime soon.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 25

Projected Contract: 7 years, $212 million ($30.3M average annual value)

The natural starting point for an evaluation on Yamamoto's market is Kodai Senga's deal with the New York Mets after also coming over from Nippon Professional Baseball. Last winter, Senga was going into his age-30 season and had plus stuff with fringy command, which is about what we saw during his rookie season -- with outcomes a bit better than expected. In hindsight, Senga's five-year, $75 million deal (with no posting fee) looks like a strong deal for the Mets.

Yamamoto is five years younger and has comparable stuff (mid-90s heater, easily plus splitter, plus curveball) but importantly has plus command. When I started looking into him around midseason, I assumed his market would be in the $90-120 million area (plus posting fee to his NPB club), but then noticed an interesting trend.

As teams were falling out of the playoff race and beat writers turned to previewing the offseason of the clubs they follow, literally every single one I saw mentioned Yamamoto in a way that suggested the team privately acknowledged real interest in the pitcher. Big-market contenders would love to get a younger pitcher and not have to lose the draft pick they would for Blake Snell or Aaron Nola. Mid-market clubs, which value draft picks even more, can afford him and are drawn to the upside of a player who could become a coveted frontline arm whom they don't have to develop internally. Even smaller-market clubs seem to see Yamamoto as a potentially solid value relative to other free agent options, due to his command and age. At this point, I assumed the bidding would run up to $150-170 million plus posting.

Then as I started preparing this list, almost every exec I spoke with said Yamamoto will get close to, if not more than, $200 million. You might wonder how a 5-foot-10 righty with no MLB experience and good-but-not-great stuff seems like a shoo-in for one of the biggest pitcher deals in years -- especially when more proven arms like Snell, Nola, and Jordan Montgomery are also available.

In the end, it's all about Yamamoto's age and what that does to the evaluation algorithms that nearly every club relies upon. Since Yamamoto is a plus athlete with plus command even before the normal physical prime for baseball players, there are all kinds of margins for error in projecting him far into the future. These models rely on history to make projections, so let's take one case study that would be a prominent example teams would look at to project Yamamoto: Aaron Nola.

If you take Nola as an example of a pitcher with above-to-plus stuff, plus command and strong durability, then add up Nola's WAR starting with his age-25 season, you can see where these teams are coming from: 5.5 WAR, followed by 3.4, 2.0 (shortened 2020 season), 4.4, 6.3 and 3.9. That's 25.5 WAR with two years left on a hypothetical seven-year deal that also included a shortened season. The going rate for that five seasons of performance on the free agent market is roughly $200 million, with each team having its own situation to consider in that calculation. In addition, Nola is expected to be close to as good in 2024 and 2025 as he was in 2023.

My projection for Yamamoto would be the most money guaranteed to a free agent pitcher since Gerrit Cole's $324 million deal with the Yankees four winters ago. The fee paid to Orix of NPB will be a tiered percentage of the contract, but for example, the fee for this projected contract would be $33.675 million, making it a $245.675 million package. Cole received the biggest guarantee ever for a pitcher, with Stephen Strasburg's $245 million deal the second biggest, and that's the other deal that's a relevant comparable for Yamamoto.

Topping that Strasburg outlay seems like a reasonable target for Yamamoto and his reps to shoot for, and I think they'll attain it. His posting window will be 45 days and is expected to start soon, which would mean a contract will need to be finished by around Christmas. Given the broad interest, there is a chance that Yamamoto is the domino that holds up the high-end starting pitching market until January.

3. Blake Snell, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 31

Projected Contract: 6 years, $150 million ($25M average annual value)

Of the top-tier free agents, Snell is the one who scares me the most for projection purposes because I could legitimately see him landing as low as Robbie Ray ($115 million), more realistically in the Patrick Corbin range ($140 million) or falling just below the Carlos Rodon deal ($162 million) -- but I also can't rule out an enthusiastic team(s) pushing into the rarified air of Jacob deGrom ($185 million), Zack Greinke ($206.5 million) or Max Scherzer ($210 million). My 80% confidence interval is $130 million to $185 million -- and that's a big gap.

One reason for this is Snell isn't the type of pitcher I'd be eager to get into a bidding war over. In terms of nine-figure deals for stuff-over-command lefties, you have the aforementioned Ray, Corbin and Rodon, who all look like disastrous deals for the clubs. A frontline, strikeout-heavy lefty starter might be the hardest thing to find in baseball, so teams will force it to try to add one. Snell's 2023 ERA was a full run and a half better than his underlying peripherals, and his walk rate has never been under 3.2 per 9 innings. When the arm speed backs up, the breaking ball will get worse and there will be nothing to fall back on. He also has never pitched 181 innings in a season.

I can feel some readers pushing back on this much negativity about the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. First, this is projecting the future, not looking backward, and though I think the first few years of Snell's new deal will look fine, I'm more worried about the back end of the contract. Second, at this time last year I had a few sources telling me to expect big regression from recent AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander due to similar regressing pitch quality, which is what happened to him this season.

If Snell wins a few playoff starts and stays healthy over the course of his next deal, he'll probably return solid value, maybe even enough to subsidize the back end of the contract. Maybe Snell is a lefty version of Scherzer who will hold his velocity and strikeouts into his mid-30s, and this will look like a screaming deal for the club that signs him. The real question I have is if the market will see this narrow part of the free agent market's awful returns and contain its enthusiasm for how good Snell looks when everything is clicking.

4. Cody Bellinger, CF

2024 Opening Day age: 28

Projected Contract: 7 years, $147 million ($21M average annual value)

Bellinger was one of the best young players in baseball in 2019 when, at age 23, he posted 7.8 WAR, winning the NL MVP and a Gold Glove, in addition to NL Rookie of the Year in 2017. Two years later, he posted a -1.0 WAR (I did a deep dive on what went wrong) and he was non-tendered after the 2022 season, becoming a free agent because his potential arbitration salary was reflective of his 2019 self, not his 2021-22 reality.

The Cubs swooped in with a one-year, $17.5 million deal and Bellinger righted the ship in 2023, setting him up for something like the payday he might have been imagining in 2019. In my deep dive, I theorized the spiral came from the shoulder injury disrupting a high-maintenance swing dependent on confidence and bat speed, and then each adjustment made it a little worse. In 2023, he was still chasing out of the zone at that new 2021-and-onward level, but he got more athletic in his swing (better plate coverage) and flatter in his attack angle (more in-zone contact). He had much lower exit velos and overall power production -- though his 26 homers suggested he was back. He significantly overperformed his underlying hitting metrics, so there's likely some natural regression to be expected.

I spin this narrative to illustrate the extreme highs and lows in his past and make the point that, despite a big bounce-back season, he isn't that guy who seemed like he was destined to make $300-plus million in 2019. Bellinger is younger than most other free agents and can play a solid center field, or be plus in right or left field or at first base. If you look just at 2023 and compare him to the rest of a terrible free agent hitting class, there's plenty to like; that's the fair way to look at it.

Brandon Nimmo's deal last offseason (eight years, $162 million, entering his age-30 season) was above market due to the short-term money-burning fever Mets owner Steve Cohen contracted, but Nimmo as a free agent was more enticing to me than Bellinger is right now. Accordingly, I have Bellinger coming in a notch below Nimmo, but there's a big range possible here. Due to Bellinger's age (the models love it!) and upside along with the lack of high-end position players, I could reasonably see this going as low as $120 million and as high as $200 million.

5. Aaron Nola, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 5 years, $120 million ($24M average annual value)

On the opposite side of the starting pitcher free agency spectrum from Snell and that group of power lefties, you will find Aaron Nola. In the past four offseasons, there are two other roughly 30-year-old righties who signed in the same area of nine-figure deals I predict Nola to get: Zack Wheeler and Kevin Gausman, two of the best starters in baseball.

If you think it's too narrow to toss out older pitchers (Scherzer's and Verlander's recent deals) and slightly bigger contracts (deGrom's $185 million contract), let's look at the pitchers who are most similar to Nola on the mound. Gausman generally fits the durable, non-overpowering righty type (read: throws tons of strikes and a splitter is his best pitch) but the other example in that bucket would be Zack Greinke's 2016 deal with the D-backs: six years, $206.5 million with 18.6 WAR returned (including the shortened 2020 season) from ages 32 to 37.

You can say this is cherry-picking, but some light comp-hunting of a handful of similar pitchers backs up my scouting instincts that prefer Nola to Snell on a longer-term deal if we're looking just for the WAR-per-dollar return. If instead you're a GM looking for an overpowering starter for the next two playoff runs and don't care much after that, then Snell is a defensible choice. It also makes some sense that the industry tends to gravitate toward the pitcher with more visually pleasing stuff and more strikeouts (Snell) over the guy with a strong three-pitch mix who doesn't blow you away (Nola).

In fact, what I consider my first public scouting hot take was that I'd take Nola (eventual seventh overall pick) in the draft over another visually pleasing, can-dream-on-him power arm whom everyone had ranked over Nola in the 2014 draft: eventual second overall pick Tyler Kolek. I'll choose to continue riding with Nola, but the industry will go the other way again.

6. Jordan Montgomery, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 31

Projected Contract: 5 years, $106 million ($21.2M average annual value)

Montgomery flew under the radar for years as a fourth-round pick out of South Carolina who was never a top-100 prospect and doesn't throw that hard or strike out many batters. He has started 140 big league games and delivered over $100 million of value in his cost-controlled years, which already shattered expectations. Montgomery is trending up of late with a career year of 4.3 WAR and a career-high 188⅔ innings with another 31.0 innings of 2.90 ERA pitching in the playoffs en route to a World Series ring.

Unlike almost every other starting pitcher, Montgomery's velo had steadily gone up in the big leagues, from 90.4 to 93.4 mph over the past five seasons, and his curveball is one of the best in baseball. For teams trying to win the WAR-per-dollar ROI derby, Montgomery probably isn't for you: The models won't recommend nine figures for a soon-to-be 31-year-old lefty with a medium strikeout rate who just had the best year of his life and also the biggest workload. For teams that want/need a playoff-tested starter for the next couple seasons and then they'll figure out the rest later? Monty is your guy, with rumors he might even get a sixth year if the bidding is intense enough.

7. Josh Hader, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 29

Projected Contract: 5 years, $105 million ($21M average annual value)

The easy target for Hader is last winter's Edwin Diaz contract -- five years, $102 million -- as those two are in the small group of the best relievers in baseball. Diaz's numbers were a bit better, but Hader is left-handed and the next-best reliever this winter will get about $50 million less in guaranteed money. Inflation hits everyone, everywhere, but especially at the top of the free agent market in a subset with a supply of one. Hader will aim to beat that Diaz number, and he should be able to.

8. Matt Chapman, 3B

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 4 years, $100 million ($25M average annual value)

I'm not sure I'd push my chips into the middle for Chapman at this price, but he's a model-friendly free agent with an excellent résumé -- which is what the models love. Chapman has posted 27.4 WAR in his six-plus controlled years. For reference, Bryce Harper posted 29.3 WAR in that time. Chapman was drafted out of college so he's a bit older, but the larger point is he has been at least average at the plate, in the field and defensively every year of his career.

He was among the best in baseball defensively just a few years ago but is closer to good than excellent now. The issue is the aging curve both generally (Chapman will be 31 in April) and how it plays out for players who were excellent defenders. The idea is that because defense relies on athleticism more than hitting, standout defense peaks earlier and players relying on it decline quicker.

As with Snell and Bellinger, I'm laying out some things to be mindful of in a couple of years that might or might not come true, but are foreseeable ways in which a player's value could fall. I would feel good about going two or three years here, and it'll almost certainly take at least a four-year contract to land him, but I wonder if there will be a five-year offer made given these questions.

9. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 4 years, $72 million ($18M average annual value)

Rodriguez opted out of the remaining three years and $49 million on his deal signed two offseasons ago. His platform year (152⅔ IP, 3.30 ERA), velo (92.3 mph average fastball), handedness, and age aren't that different than Montgomery's (188⅔ IP, 3.20 ERA, 93.4 mph, 31 years old) so I expect Rodriguez will appeal to the value-first clubs seeking a comparable résumé at a lower cost. Montgomery's playoff run is an important addition to his side of the ledger, though, and some teams are unsure of a big commitment to Rodriguez after he blocked a deadline trade to the Dodgers.

10. Sonny Gray, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 34

Projected Contract: 3 years, $69 million ($23M average annual value)

Gray's market is limited only due to his age, as he just had his best season: 184.0 IP, 2.79 ERA. He doesn't throw that hard (92.8 mph on his average fastball) but it plays up due to location and shape with his mid-80s slider serving as his headline out pitch. Gray will compete with Snell, Nola and Montgomery for the best pure starting pitcher AAV behind Yamamoto, so that's a reasonable target for his camp to shoot for. He'll likely land a three-year deal, but it's possible a team will go to a fourth year.

11. Shota Imanaga, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 4 years, $68 million ($17M average annual value)

Imanaga is somewhat similar to Gray in that he doesn't throw that hard, but his fastball also plays up for similar reasons. Both are crafty vets with good feel and off-speed stuff who have No. 2 or 3 starter upside depending on how you define that. There's a case that Imanaga will get close to $100 million since he's four years younger than Gray, left-handed and, if anything, coming over from NPB with no MLB experience is almost a positive given the track record of high-end pitchers making that jump. I'd expect four or five years and there's a $40 million range of what the guaranteed money could be, but I'll lean toward the lower end since he lacks ace upside and there is a glut of pitchers in this tier. Imanaga is a free agent, so there's no posting fee to be paid to his club.

12. Lucas Giolito, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 29

Projected Contract: 4 years, $68 million ($17M average annual value)

Giolito has seemingly been a big name forever, as a potential No. 1 overall pick early in his high school career, then a longtime top prospect who was traded and took a while to find big league success but then had a great three-year run 2019-21 (427.2 IP, 3.47 ERA). He hits free agency still in his 20s, but he's coming off two consecutive mediocre seasons (combined: 346.0 IP, 4.89 ERA). I don't think there's a team that thinks it can "fix" Giolito and just bring him back to his best form, but there are some that believe there's another gear with some tweaks, a change of scenery and a clean slate. The best contract comp for a durable, possibly solid or maybe a bit better young righty starter with a history of performance is Taijuan Walker's deal last offseason: four years, $72 million. Since Walker was a complete nonfactor in the playoffs and the depth of the starting pitcher crop this winter means more competition, Giolito could come in below that comp, but I wouldn't bet against him topping it either.

13. Marcus Stroman, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 32

Projected Contract: 3 years, $63 million ($21M average annual value)

While Giolito is a bit of a conundrum, Stroman is an easier evaluation: He has been basically the same pitcher his entire career going back to college. It makes sense that he'd lean into shorter-term deals to maximize AAV and build in opt-outs so he can renew at similar terms often, rather than try to convince teams to go five or six years for a very good pitcher who isn't the frontline type to get a megadeal. His last deal was three years, $71 million and he opted out of the last season at $21 million. I think he can get that AAV on a multiyear deal, at a touch below the full package of his last three-year deal.

14. Jung-hoo Lee, RF

2024 Opening Day age: 25

Projected Contract: 5 years, $63 million ($12.5M average annual value)

Lee is a solid player who most clubs think is an everyday player, and he offers the same model-friendly age that Yamamoto does. Lee probably isn't an impact type, though, a likely right fielder who can also play some center field and can hit but has just medium power. I think he goes to the front of this second cut of position players due to age and the flexibility to play up the middle, though the hitters just behind him might have better tools. Lee would be subject to a posting fee that for this contract would be just over $11 million. The last young KBO position player to be posted of this quality was Padres SS Ha-Seong Kim (four years, $28 million) in 2020-21 and he just put up 3.7 and 4.4 WAR seasons the past two seasons. Feedback from teams is that Lee's AAV should be in this area if not a bit lower, but I could see someone going to six years to lower the CBT impact and take advantage of his age, although Lee could also prioritize a shorter-term deal with an earlier trip to free agency like Kim did.

15. Teoscar Hernandez, RF

2024 Opening Day age: 31

Projected Contract: 3 years, $52.5 million ($17.5M average annual value)

Hernandez is probably the class of this next group of hitters (Gurriel, Candelario, Garver, Soler and Hoskins) and could easily get a fourth year. He has the best mix of performance, power and defensive value in a corner, but the risk points are his contact rate and defensive value on the back end of the contract. If Mitch Haniger can get three years, $43.5 million going into his age-32 season with big durability issues, as he did last winter, then this whole group could clear that number given the lack of everyday bats.

16. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 3 years, $45 million ($15M average annual value)

Gurriel had a career year at the right time, hitting 24 homers, while his defensive metrics have continued to improve in left field. Hernandez is a bit more risk/reward with his power-reliant profile, while Gurriel is a lower-variance, solid addition whose future fit ranges from low-end regular to very good role player. He also could get a fourth year, as I'm sure one or two players from this group will.

17. Jordan Hicks, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 27

Projected Contract: 4 years, $44 million ($11M average annual value)

Hicks throws really hard: He averaged 100.3 mph on fastballs and those are mostly sinkers, too. He made progress with control, getting his walks down to 4.4 per 9 innings, and with a manageable number like that alongside a big strikeout and ground ball rate, you have an elite reliever. Add in his age and I think teams will go to four years, but if I'm wrong I'd guess it's a higher AAV deal at three years (maybe with an opt-out) before I'd guess a five-year deal, given his uneven history.

18. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 3 years, $39 million ($13M average annual value)

Candelario was a prospect with some hype but didn't have his big breakout until his age-26 and age-27 seasons. Unfortunately he followed those up with a stinker in 2022 that led to him being non-tendered by the Tigers, landing with the Nationals on a one-year, $5 million deal last season. Candelario had another strong season and was traded back to his first club, the Cubs, at the deadline. He outperformed his underlying numbers by a good margin this year, but he's a steady third baseman with solid-average power so he'll get a multiyear deal for an eight-figure AAV; probably three, but maybe four years.

19. Mitch Garver, C

2024 Opening Day age: 33

Projected Contract: 3 years, $37.5 million ($12.5M average annual value)

Garver is in the Mike Napoli mold of a catcher/first base/designated hitter with some thump and strong intangibles that make him a valuable part of playoff clubs. I would normally think a 33-year-old right/right power hitter who is only a part-time catcher wouldn't get a three-year deal, but there appears to be a lot of interest at roughly this price.

20. Jorge Soler, LF

2024 Opening Day age: 32

Projected Contract: 3 years, $37.5 million ($12.5M average annual value)

Soler has been tough to figure out, cracking 2.0 WAR just once in his career despite having huge raw power and plenty of prospect hype dating back to when he signed with the Cubs in 2012. I slid Soler behind Hernandez and Candelario because he is a below-average defender in a corner outfield spot and might be DH-only soon enough. That said, his 2019 season (48 homers, 3.7 WAR) is the best season of anyone in this range, and his 2023 season (36 homers, 1.9 WAR) actually included some bad luck on balls in play, so there's a case he should float to the top of this trio if a team has a clear POV on an adjustment to unlock even a bit more offense.

21. Seth Lugo, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 34

Projected Contract: 3 years, $36 million ($12M average annual value)

Lugo is best known for his top-of-the-scale spin rates (3240 RPM; second in baseball behind Ryan Pressly, and first among starters by a good margin) on his curveball, but that was from when he was a long reliever with the Mets. Last year with the Padres was his first big league season with no relief appearances and he was solid: 146⅓ IP, 3.57 ERA. He opted out of the $7.5 million salary for the last year of his deal and now looks poised to land a three-year deal as a No. 4 starter.

22. Rhys Hoskins, 1B

2024 Opening Day age: 31

Projected Contract: 2 years, $34 million ($17M average annual value)

After a career of durability, Hoskins missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL suffered during spring training. That put a damper on his free agency, but the knee is not seen as a risk for long-term effects, and being a right/right first baseman in his 30s means Hoskins was never going to get a megadeal. He has been a solid 2-win player every season of his career, so he could get a three- or possibly four-year deal like the outfielders ranked just ahead of him or (more likely) get something closer to last winter's comps of Michael Conforto (missed his entire platform year, landed a two-year deal for $36 million with an opt-out) or Josh Bell (a similar first baseman who also got a two-year deal for $33 million with an opt-out) and neither ended up taking advantage of their opt-outs.

23. Robert Stephenson, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 31

Projected Contract: 3 years, $30 million ($10M average annual value)

Stephenson is the stealth choice of the offseason for a quick, eye-opening deal among the execs I spoke with, possibly for four years and/or a $10 million-plus AAV. He was a first-round pick as a power prep righty with a silky arm action in 2011 and basically didn't deliver on that promise until a 2023 midseason trade to the Rays. With Tampa Bay, he was outstanding: 42 appearances, 38⅓ IP, 2.35 ERA, 60 K and 8 BB. He had an average fastball velo of 96.9 mph but relied mostly on a nasty, high-80s cutter that he added while with the Rays. It's a short track record of success, but there's a clear narrative to explain it, and there are plenty of late-developing relievers who have become elite for multiple seasons.

24. Yariel Rodriguez, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 27

Projected Contract: 4 years, $30 million ($7.5M average annual value)

Rodriguez is another player with a high-variance contract projection. He pitched exclusively in relief in NPB, but he also has a long history of pitching almost only as a starter in the Cuban league and largely as a starter in international competition. Rodriguez has a mid-90s heater and two good breaking balls, landing him somewhere in the range of third/fourth starter to multi-inning reliever, like a lot of recent imports from NPB and KBO. His turning 27 soon means there will be lots of interest in a multiyear deal, with the potential for some complicated contractual language about options, escalators, early free agency, opting out of arbitration, etc. There's buzz that his deal might go over $50 million, but I think it's more likely to land in the $30 million range with some incentives and a chance to hit free agency again for $50-plus million, if it's not there this time.

25. Michael Lorenzen, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 32

Projected Contract: 2 years, $28 million ($14M average annual value)

Lorenzen is possibly the most agile and best hitter out of any of baseball's pitchers, and he's now turned into a viable fourth starter after a career of relieving (or starting for parts of a season). He should be able to do better than the one-year, $8.5 million deal he got last winter.

26. Sean Manaea, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 32

Projected Contract: 2 years, $28 million ($14M average annual value)

Manaea's velocity was up 2.4 mph this past season, addressing the biggest question in his profile, though his numbers didn't get dramatically better. With this spike and his lower arm slot, he seems like the kind of pitcher that some of the best pitcher development teams will have ideas on how to optimize while still expecting solid bulk innings from him. He opted out of the remaining one year, $12.5 million on his deal.

27. Michael Wacha, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 32

Projected Contract: 2 years, $26 million ($13M average annual value)

Wacha also opted out of a $6.5 million player option after the Padres declined to pick up their two-year, $32 million option on the convoluted deal they signed him to last winter (he made a $7.5 million base salary in 2023). He had his best season in a few years and is a good bet to pitch bulk innings as a fourth-starter type.

28. J.D. Martinez, DH

2024 Opening Day age: 36

Projected Contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M average annual value)

Martinez's offensive performance ticked up in 2023 after bathing in the cleansing hitter waters of the Dodgers, as he posted his best isolated power since 2017. He'll do much better than the one-year, $10 million deal that landed him in Los Angeles -- with a lot of potential landing spots -- but I don't think there will be a three-year deal for a 36-year-old designated hitter.

29. Nick Martinez, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 33

Projected Contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M average annual value)

Martinez also fits with the above bulk-inning starter group. Similar to Wacha, the Padres turned down a two-year, $32 million option while Martinez turned down an $8 million player option. He was used more in long relief than as a pure starter, but I think he offers the same sort of value as Wacha for a third/fourth-starter type.

30. Aroldis Chapman, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 36

Projected Contract: 2 years, $22 million ($11M average annual value)

Chapman looked to me on the verge of melting down in nearly every postseason appearance (six strikeouts and five walks in nine appearances tells that story) but got the job done when it mattered. He also had his best fastball velocity since 2017 in 2023, a bounce-back year for him. I don't know how much the industry trusts him going forward, but I assume there will be a multiyear deal out there for Chapman.

31. Kenta Maeda, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 35

Projected Contract: 2 years, $22 million ($11M average annual value)

Maeda and Clevinger below him both fit with the above group of bulk starters -- Martinez, Wacha, Manaea, Lorenzen and Lugo -- who should get multiyear deals. Maeda is the oldest, has the lowest velocity and likely has the least durability, but he also might be the best pitcher of the group.

32. Mike Clevinger, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 33

Projected Contract: 2 years, $21 million ($10.5M average annual value)

Clevinger, like Giolito, looked like a fireballing frontline starter in 2019 but also has lost some of that velocity and the strikeout rate has dipped. Clevinger signed a one-year, $12 million deal last winter and declined his end of a $12 million mutual option, eyeing a multiyear deal.

33. Craig Kimbrel, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 35

Projected Contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M average annual value)

Kimbrel is a known quantity. He'll do that funny vampire thing with his arms and throw a bunch of flat high-90s fastballs up in the zone for swings and misses, but, as with Chapman, you might feel like he's on the verge of losing control often. He might choose a one-year deal but should get multiyear interest.

34. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 2 years, $18 million ($9M average annual value)

Lopez is also a fireballing reliever who throws a lot of heaters with a tenuous grasp of the strike zone, but he's still in his 20s. He might want to get an opt-out in a one-year deal in case he puts it all together and jumps into Jordan Hicks territory with a breakthrough season.

35. Jack Flaherty, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 28

Projected Contract: 1 year, $17 million

The 2019 season was a high-water mark for Giolito, Clevinger and Flaherty. Flaherty looked like the best bet going forward and now is the only one of the group not to have found his footing since then. I assume he'll go for a one-year pillow contract to right the ship and still hit free agency in his 20s for a bigger deal, following in the footsteps (hopefully) of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon -- both former first-round picks who put it together in their late 20s on short-term deals before cashing in on nine-figure deals in their 30s.

36. Joc Pederson, LF

2024 Opening Day age: 31

Projected Contract: 1 year, $16 million

Pederson took the qualifying offer last winter (just under $20 million) and was one of the industry's picks to click with the lack of extreme shifts for pull-happy lefty hitters. That didn't really materialize -- his underlying stats matched 2022 on balance -- and he was hit-unlucky, so his WAR dropped from 2.1 to 0.6 despite no real drop-off in ability. He now has regressed to being used almost only as a DH, so I think it'll just be one-year deals the rest of the way for Joc.

37. Lance Lynn, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 36

Projected Contract: 2 years, $16 million ($8M average annual value)

Speaking of underwhelming 2023 results, Lynn's stats were hot garbage: 5.73 ERA (second worst among starters) and 44 homers allowed (worst among all pitchers). He's still durable and his underlying numbers weren't quite that bad. He was also good the five seasons before that, and his velocity hasn't dropped much, so signing him seems like a solid buy-low opportunity for those shopping in the starting pitching bargain bin. I was a little surprised, but not shocked, to hear from clubs that they think he'll get a multiyear deal.

38. Michael A. Taylor, CF

2024 Opening Day age: 33

Projected Contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M average annual value)

Taylor took a step forward offensively this year, posting a career-high 21 homers while continuing to be an above-average defensive center fielder. It sounds like he'll get a two-year deal in this general area.

39. Yuki Matsui, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 28

Projected Contract: 2 years, $15 million ($7.5M average annual value)

Matsui is a free agent lefty reliever looking to come over from NPB, so there won't be a posting fee paid to his club. He's listed at 5-foot-8 and has a solid low-90s heater but relies on a plus splitter. You might have noticed the splitter is very common for pitchers of any background coming over from NPB, as it's much more common in Japan than it is in the States. There could be some interest in a three-year deal, but I wouldn't expect four years due to his lower ceiling.

40. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 37

Projected Contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M average annual value)

Along with Lynn, Ryu felt like a candidate for a make-good, one-year deal to me, but I'm hearing he'll likely get multiyear interest despite averaging 88.8 mph on his heater and making 17 appearances in the past two seasons. Reliable back-end starters who might recede into the background in the playoffs aren't easy to find, so teams are expected to pay up on short-term deals for a number of them.

41. Hector Neris, RHP

2024 Opening Day age: 34

Projected Contract: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M average annual value)

Neris declined an $8.5 million player option because he looks likely to land a multiyear deal despite turning 35 next June. His velocity was down a tick in 2023, but he's still a solid seventh/eighth-inning pitcher despite being a risky, fly-ball-oriented type without plus velocity.

42. Tim Anderson, SS

2024 Opening Day age: 30

Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million

Anderson and Amed Rosario (just missed the top 50) are the two proven starting shortstops who had terrible 2023 seasons and now will likely get one-year deals in order to reestablish themselves. Rosario turns 28 soon, but some underlying stats suggest he could be slowly moving into the utility-type part of his career. Anderson is two years older and his skill set/approach is similar to Rosario's, but his offensive and defensive metrics fell off a cliff so dramatically in the past two seasons that I think a savvy development club with an infield need (Orioles? Dodgers?) could still turn Anderson back into a solid everyday player after a -0.5 WAR disaster season in 2023.

43. Justin Turner, 3B

2024 Opening Day age: 39

Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million

Turner turned down a $13.4 million player option that felt very fair to me, so I assume he's just looking to choose his next landing spot more than to test the limits of his true market value. He's now a solid first base/designated hitter who fits the righty part of a platoon and can fill in at other spots while being a bench bat and clubhouse presence.

44. Adam Duvall, LF

2024 Opening Day age: 35

Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million

Duvall can play all three outfield spots and hit 21 homers in a 1.9 WAR campaign in 2023. There are signs of decline on both offense and defense and he has had over a 30% strikeout rate for three years, so things could fall off a cliff soon.

45. James Paxton, LHP

2024 Opening Day age: 35

Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million

Paxton had long been a guy of decent durability with good stuff and solid numbers. Then he missed almost two complete seasons due to a rehab from Tommy John surgery that came with a number of setbacks. He posted a solid 96 innings this year but might have moved into the one-year-deal-only area of his career, with 80-120 innings of third/fourth-starter quality to offer.

46. Brandon Belt, 1B

2024 Opening Day age: 35

Projected Contract: 1 year, $11.5 million

I was a bit surprised that Belt landed a $9.3 million deal last winter coming off a 0.1 WAR season in 298 PA, even if he was hit unlucky. His underlying numbers ticked up even more in 2023 and he overperformed them by a healthy amount, posting 2.3 WAR -- so the Jays made a great investment. He'll turn 36 in April, so I think he'll settle for another one-year deal, but he should get into eight figures.

47. Jason Heyward, RF

2024 Opening Day age: 34

Projected Contract: 1 year, $11 million