With 2024 rapidly approaching, it's time once again to check in on the most promising mid-major men's programs in Division I. This time our attention has been captured by four mid-majors in particular.
The last time we engaged in this exercise, it was the preseason. We named five programs that showed promise and, sure enough, Drake, Grand Canyon and Liberty have indeed lived up to those expectations. Loyola Chicago and Yale? Not so much, but the season's young, and we'll keep watching.
For the time being, we here at "mid-majors to watch" HQ will continue to exempt Florida Atlantic and the entire Mountain West from the term in question. The Owls are coming off a Final Four run and are clocking in at or near top-four-seed status in Joe Lunardi's bracket projections.
For its part the Mountain West outranked the ACC last season at KenPom in terms of conference strength, and San Diego State reached the 2023 national title game. If we were speaking of Mountain West teams, however, we would be remiss not to single out Colorado State. The Rams have wins over Creighton and Colorado to their name and are looking like a threat to win the Mountain West outright. CSU, we salute you!
With those rules in place, here are four more mid-major programs to watch. Make room in your attention span for the following teams alongside the aforementioned likes of Drake, GCU and Liberty:
Indiana State Sycamores
At a time when Alabama has made its name by relying heavily on attempted layups and 3s, the Sycamores have even more Alabama than Alabama. While the rankings in question are subject to change game by game, ISU has spent good portions of the early season holding down the No. 1 position in Division I at hoop-math.com in one particular statistic: No team so far has devoted a smaller share of its attempts to 2-point jumpers than Josh Schertz's group.
Robbie Avila shows off the swagger with deep 3
Appropriately enough, Alabama hosted Indiana State in Tuscaloosa last month and brushed the Sycamores aside in a 22-point victory. Even factoring in the lopsided loss to the Crimson Tide, Schertz has to like what he sees in his third season since leaving the head coaching position at Division II Lincoln Memorial.
Thanks to transfers Isaiah Swope (Southern Indiana) and Ryan Conwell (South Florida) as well as returning sophomore Robbie Avila, the Sycamores have also spent good portions of the young season leading the nation for effective field goal percentage.
Then again, ISU ranked No. 1 in the nation for 2-point accuracy last season, so this "incredible shooting" thing isn't exactly coming out of the blue.
With a road game at Michigan State at the end of the month followed by what promises to be a spirited struggle for Missouri Valley supremacy against Drake, Indiana State will have ample opportunity to prove its offense is for real. If the Sycamores supply that proof, the program's first NCAA tournament bid since 2011 could be in the offing.
James Madison puts up 130 in huge home win
James Madison Dukes
When speaking of an undefeated team ranked in the AP Top 25, we here at "mid-majors to watch" HQ seek merely to add a few well-chosen words of praise. Here's what we're seeing from James Madison:
This offense has undergone a day-and-night transformation since last season. Noah Freidel and Robert Morris transfer Michael Green are hitting 3s, Boston College transfer T.J. Bickerstaff is dominating the paint (though struggling at the line) and as a team, the Dukes have reduced their turnovers dramatically.
After opening the season with an overtime win at Michigan State, JMU emerged victorious in two overtimes at Kent State. Mark Byington's group has kept the momentum going ever since, and now sits at 11-0 on the season. In fact, we need to address the possibility -- unlikely, though hardly impossible -- that James Madison could run the table in the regular season.
On paper, the Dukes appear to be poised for a showdown with Appalachian State for the Sun Belt's automatic bid. JMU will play a road game against the Mountaineers next month, and that's a contest Auburn, for one, couldn't win. Should the Dukes somehow prevail there, carrying an unblemished record all the way to the Sun Belt tournament, though still a very tall order, would be a bit more realistic to contemplate.
Caden Pierce throws down big slam vs. Old Dominion Monarchs
Princeton Tigers
This team requires no introduction. We all remember Princeton stunning No. 2-seeded Arizona 59-55 in March's round of 64. For good measure, the Tigers then defeated Missouri before falling to Creighton in the Sweet 16.
Mitch Henderson's team is again outperforming expectations in 2023-24. This was supposed to be not so much a rebuilding as a resetting year for them. Tosan Evbuomwan, Ryan Langborg and Keeshawn Kellman were all gone, and this season's Princeton rotation figured to be a bit green and undersized.
Instead, the Tigers are getting a big lift from an offense headed up by Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce. Despite entering the season never having started a game, Lee is hitting his shots from both sides of the arc and drawing a good many fouls as a 6-foot-3 sophomore. His classmate Pierce holds down the defensive glass at 6-7 and is connecting on 63% of his 2s.
Princeton will reach the postseason having played just one major-conference opponent (Rutgers, in a game the Tigers won 68-61 in Trenton, New Jersey). If Henderson's group were to win the Ivy's automatic bid, this could be a team that flies under the radar due to not having any "signature" wins. If it comes to that, never mind the "Who have they beat?" doubters. Princeton could wreck some brackets for a second consecutive year.
Devin Tillis hits the dagger 3 for UC Irvine
UC Irvine Anteaters
Don't be influenced unduly by what appears to be a pedestrian 7-4 record from the Anteaters. That mark reflects four losses in true road games, including a 63-62 defeat at San Diego State.
Next up is still another road test, this time at New Mexico. Plainly, Russell Turner takes a Tom Izzo "the more challenging, the better" approach to non-conference scheduling. Once Big West play commences, however, UC Irvine projects to be the favorite to capture the league's automatic bid.
Derin Saran has quickly established a reputation for efficiency on offense as a first-year wing coming off the bench. While his per-game stats are limited by playing time (Turner elects to spread minutes across one of the deepest rotations in D-I), Saran is averaging 25 points per 40 minutes.
The Anteaters' very good defense excels at forcing opponents into trying 2-point jumpers. Fully 35% of the shot attempts recorded by opposing teams have been launched from inside the arc but not at the rim. UC Irvine makes you take the shots that aren't in your gameplan.