<
>

Fantasy football Shadow Report: Lower expectations for Tee Higgins, Davante Adams

Tee Higgins scored two TDs last week, his first trips to the end zone since Week 2. What will he do for an encore in Week 16? Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders that the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet.

Note that, unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.

Projected Shadow Matchups

Bengals' Tee Higgins vs. Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. (Shadow)

Porter has shadowed in four of seven games since Week 9, traveling when the opposing offense has a clear No. 1 perimeter receiver. That meant showdowns with DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Ja'Marr Chase and Marquise Brown. The rookie shadowed the four star receivers on a combined 100 of their 124 routes, including 91 of 97 perimeter routes and nine of 27 in the slot. Porter has played well and that included holding Chase to a 4-81-0 receiving line on four targets in Week 12.

In normal circumstances, we'd expect Porter to shadow Chase again, but since he's doubtful with a shoulder injury, Porter figures to travel with Higgins. The Steelers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs, as well as the second fewest to the perimeter, over the last four weeks.

Takeaway: Higgins' combination of talent and a path to a big target share is enough to vault him into the WR2/3 mix, but expectations should be lowered a bit in this matchup.

Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Chiefs' L'Jarius Sneed (Shadow)

As expected, Sneed did not shadow against a New England offense without a clear No. 1 receiver last week. Prior to that, however, he shadowed in 12 consecutive games, tracing back to Week 2. That stretch included showdowns with Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, Joshua Palmer, Courtland Sutton, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Adams, Romeo Doubs and Stefon Diggs. Sneed shadowed those 12 on a combined 222 (or 90%) of their 246 perimeter routes and has had plenty of success. That includes helping limit Diggs to 24 yards on 11 targets in Week 14.

It also includes the Week 12 showdown with Adams, in which Sneed aligned against him on 29 of his 35 routes. Adams was limited to 73 yards on seven targets in the game. Adams aligns on the perimeter 82% of the time and can expect to see Sneed on nearly all of those plays this week.

Takeaway: Sneed has proven to be an impact shadow corner and that was on display in the first meeting. Adams should be downgraded, whereas Jakobi Meyers (6-79-1 receiving line in the first meeting) can be upgraded against Jaylen Watson.

Vikings' Justin Jefferson vs. Lions' Cameron Sutton (Shadow)

The Lions benched Jerry Jacobs and have turned to Sutton as their clear No. 1 corner. That was apparent last week when Sutton was ticketed with shadowing Courtland Sutton on all 24 of his perimeter routes. Cameron Sutton has also shadowed Drake London, Davante Adams and Amon-Ra St. Brown on their perimeter routes this season.

Detroit is around midpack against WRs this season (ninth-most fantasy points allowed) and Jefferson has had the Lions' number in years past (20.7 PPG in seven career meetings). Expect these two to link up the 70% of the time that Jefferson aligns out wide.

Takeaway: Sutton has been solid this season, but Jefferson doesn't need to be downgraded more than slightly.

Steelers' George Pickens vs. Bengals' Chidobe Awuzie (Shadow); Steelers' Diontae Johnson vs. Bengals' DJ Turner II (Shadow)

Cincinnati has played the matchup game at times this season, and that included the Week 12 matchup with Pittsburgh. In that game, Turner shadowed Johnson on 23 of his 29 routes, including all 21 on the perimeter. Awuzie shadowed Pickens on 18 of his 28 routes, including 18 of 22 on the perimeter. Johnson posted a 4-50-0 receiving line on eight targets, whereas Pickens produced a 3-58-0 line on five targets (he went without a catch on two targets against Awuzie). The Bengals are midpack against wide receivers this season, though they've struggled against the perimeter as of late, having allowed the fifth-most points to the boundary over the last four weeks (which aligns with Cam Taylor-Britt's trip to IR). Johnson (80% perimeter) and Pickens (83%) primarily align out wide and will see a ton of Turner and Awuzie, respectively, this week.

Takeaway: Despite the impending shadows, Awuzie and Turner haven't played well enough to make this a concerning matchup.

play
0:45
How should fantasy managers feel about Davante Adams after Week 15?

Eric Moody breaks down his fantasy outlook for Davante Adams ahead of a matchup vs. the Chiefs.

Tough Matchups

Commanders' Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner

The Jets have allowed the fewest yards, touchdowns (four) and fantasy points to WRs, as well as the fewest points to the perimeter and sixth fewest to the slot this season. New York remains the only defense that has held the opposing WR unit below its season average in 100% of games. McLaurin (85% perimeter) and Dotson (57%) will see quite a bit of Gardner and Reed on the boundary and should be downgraded.

Samuel (72% slot) will work inside against Carter, which isn't a walk in the park, but the best matchup of the three.

Packers' Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Christian Watson vs. Panthers' Donte Jackson, Troy Hill and Jaycee Horn

Carolina has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the eighth fewest to the perimeter and fewest to the slot. Only three wide receivers have reached 19 fantasy points against Carolina: superstars Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson.

Watson (or, if he remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, Dontayvion Wicks) and Doubs are the primary perimeter receivers and will face Jackson and now-healthy Horn on the boundary, whereas surging Reed will work against Hill inside. Downgrade Green Bay's receivers.

Colts' Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell, Clark Phillips III and Mike Hughes

Only Dallas has relied on man coverage more than Atlanta (61%) this season and, despite the team making big personnel changes this past week (Phillips replaced Jeff Okudah and Hughes took over for Dee Alford in the slot), the plan has worked for the most part. The Falcons have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the fourth fewest to the perimeter and are midpack against the slot.

Those outside/inside splits are notable in this one, as Pittman (71% perimeter) and Pierce (87%) do most of their work outside and will see a lot of Terrell and Phillips/Okudah. Downs, however, aligns inside 81% of the time and has a decent matchup against Hughes. Consider Downs a sneaky bet to bust out of his slump this week. Keep an eye on Pittman's status for Week 16.

Rams' Demarcus Robinson, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vs. Saints' Isaac Yiadom, Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo

The Saints have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They're near midpack in WR targets faced, but are allowing 6.8 yards per target (second lowest) and a 56% catch rate (second lowest) to the position. The most points scored by a WR against them was Adam Thielen's 20.4 in Week 2 and the last WR to reach 15 fantasy points was Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 8.

The key for the Saints has been domination of the perimeter, having allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the boundary, but ranking near midpack against the slot. Marshon Lattimore (IR) is eligible to return this week, but it may not matter much, as Yiadom has been stellar in his stead.

Nacua (70% perimeter) and Robinson (73%) are the Rams' top perimeter receivers and should be downgraded against Adebo and Yiadom/Lattimore. Kupp (53% slot) doesn't need to be downgraded quite as much against Taylor.

play
0:55
Moody: Stafford-Kupp duo heating up at the right time

Eric Moody analyzes Cooper Kupp's prospects for the rest of the fantasy playoffs.

Advantageous Matchups

Bears' DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney and Equanimeous St. Brown vs. Cardinals' Starling Thomas V, Garrett Williams and Antonio Hamilton Sr.

The Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season and they've surrendered the seventh-most points to the position overall over the last four weeks. Outside corner has been a major issue to the extent that former No. 1 corner Marco Wilson was benched in Week 12 and Kei'Trel Clark followed suit during the Week 14 bye. Hamilton and undrafted rookie Thomas took over as the boundary corners this past Sunday, with third-round rookie Williams manning the slot.

Moore (80%) is the only fantasy-relevant receiver from this Chicago group, and he can be upgraded in one of his best matchups of the season.

Saints' Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Lynn Bowden Jr. vs. Rams' Derion Kendrick, Ahkello Witherspoon and Quentin Lake

The Rams were surprisingly good at slowing receivers earlier this season, but that hasn't held up. Los Angeles has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to the position over the last eight weeks, including the second most to the perimeter. Cobie Durant was, in turn, sent to the bench, with S/CB Lake taking over in the slot.

Shaheed (54% perimeter), Olave (60%) and Bowden (63%) align all over the formation and will see plenty of Witherspoon, Kendrick and Lake. New Orleans' receivers can be upgraded.

Jets' Garrett Wilson, Xavier Gipson and Allen Lazard vs. Commanders' Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste and Jartavius Martin

Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points (most over expected), as well as the most yards, second-most touchdowns (22) and highest yards per target (10.2) to WRs this season. The Commanders have surrendered the most points to the perimeter and 10th most to the slot (most over the last four weeks). Fuller has played well, but he hasn't had much help from St-Juste and rookie Emmanuel Forbes (who was benched again last week).

Wilson lines up pretty evenly across the two boundary spots and the slot, so he'll see plenty of all three corners and can be upgraded. He's the only fantasy option from this WR room, so the likes of Gipson, Lazard and Jason Brownlee are no more than super deep sleepers.

Note that it's possible Wilson draws shadow coverage from Fuller, but Washington's overall struggles against the position suggest we should feel optimistic about this matchup.

Giants' Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton vs. Eagles' James Bradberry, Bradley Roby and Darius Slay

The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs this season, over the past eight weeks and over the past four weeks. That includes the second most to the perimeter and most to the slot on the season.

The Eagles' efficiency against receivers has been acceptable (7.5 yards per target is the 12th lowest), but they've faced massive volume (league-high 25.4 WR targets faced per game). Philadelphia has allowed a league-high 24 touchdowns to the position and 20 WRs have reached 15 fantasy points against them in 14 games. Generally, we'd avoid the Giants' WR room, but Robinson, Slayton and Hyatt have established themselves as the clear top three for New York, which helps solidify them as flex sleepers in this terrific Week 16 matchup.

Note that Slay was out last week, so if he remains sidelined, the matchup will be even better for New York.

Buccaneers' Mike Evans, Trey Palmer and Chris Godwin vs. Jaguars' Tyson Campbell, Tre Herndon and Darious Williams

The Jaguars have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the sixth most to the perimeter. Seven WRs have reached 20 fantasy points against Jacksonville and all seven are primarily boundary receivers. Williams has played well, but we've otherwise seen issues with effectiveness and injuries (Campbell has missed six of the team's last eight games and remains dicey for this game).

Evans (72% perimeter) and Godwin (62%) do most of their work outside and get a value boost in this one.

play
0:45
Why Loza is optimistic about Chris Godwin in Week 16

Liz Loza explains why she's confident in Chris Godwin after his performance vs. the Packers.