Fantasy baseball reactions to MLB offseason trades, signings

Tristan H. Cockcroft and Eric Karabell

Dec 20, 2023, 07:40 PM ET

Tracking the offseason MLB trades and signings with fantasy baseball implications for the upcoming season, Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft will analyze and provide an outlook for all of the key players involved.

Shohei Ohtani had been the hottest player in the mix, even with the expectation that he will not pitch at all in 2024, but he has now signed with the other Los Angeles team. Among those who will take the mound next season, we've got the likes of Blake Snell and Josh Hader potentially on the move. At the plate, names such as Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman could generate some buzz.

Check back often as more players find their potential new homes for 2024.

Players will be separated by position, then listed in order of fantasy relevance within each positional grouping. Also included are links to any stand-alone analysis stories and/or videos regarding free agent signings and trades.

Note: Players who end up re-signing with their previous team will not always be included.

Catcher

Tom Murphy signs with Giants: Injuries kept Murphy to just 61 games over the last two seasons, though he hit .292 with nine home runs in those games. Murphy figures to handle backup duties to young Patrick Bailey over the next two seasons. Murphy can hit a little, boasting a .842 OPS against left-handed pitching, and fantasy managers in deep multi-catcher formats may look in his direction. -- Karabell (12/19)

Austin Hedges signs with Guardians: A career .189/.246/.321, non-fantasy-relevant hitter with an excellent defensive reputation, Hedges will serve as Bo Naylor's backup and presumably resume his role as Shane Bieber's personal catcher for 2024. -- Cockcroft (12/11)

Christian Bethancourt traded from Guardians to Marlins: He'll assume now-free agent Jacob Stallings' role as the Marlins' stronger-armed, "rein in the running game" partner to Nick Fortes. Bethancourt has a hint of pop, but is only relevant as an NL-only No. 2 backstop. -- Cockcroft (12/11)

Victor Caratini signs with Astros: The No. 40 catcher in ESPN points league scoring this past season heads to his fourth big-league club, where he should back up emerging Yainer Diaz. Caratini is mildly relevant in multi-catcher formats, since he has hit seven-plus home runs in each of the last four full seasons -- mainly versus right-handed pitching -- and with reasonable walk and strikeout rates. -- Karabell (12/10)

Some names still available: Mitch Garver, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, Yasmani Grandal, Martin Maldonado

Third base

Jeimer Candelario signs with Reds: It may seem like the last thing the Reds needed was another infielder, but the switch-hitting Candelario, 30, comes off a solid season for the Cubs/Nationals featuring a career-high 64 extra-base hits and a relevant .807 OPS. Plus, he chipped in with eight stolen bases. This made him a top-20 1B/3B in ESPN points formats. Perhaps the Reds, loaded with young infielders, have a trade in the works to acquire pitching, but Candelario should hit in the middle of their strong lineup and in a hitter-friendly ballpark, with another shot at being a top-75 fantasy hitter. -- Karabell (12/7)

Eugenio Suarez traded to Diamondbacks from Mariners: Suarez ranks fifth in home runs since the start of the 2018 season and he knocked in 96 runs last season, so that's the good news. The bad news is Suarez also leads all of the majors in strikeouts over that span, leading the AL with 214 last season and 196 in 2022. Suarez was 25th among third basemen in fantasy points last season, barely a top-150 overall hitter. The move back to the NL doesn't figure to alter his value much in a positive direction, if at all.

As of now, the Mariners claim they intend to go with veteran Luis Urias, acquired recently from the Red Sox, at third base. He had a lost 2023 season for two teams, suffering a major hamstring injury on Opening Day and hitting just .194 with three home runs over 175 PA. Urias hit 23 home runs for the 2021 Brewers and he defends better than Suarez, but there isn't much to like here for ESPN standard formats. -- Karabell (11/22)

Some names still available: Matt Chapman, Evan Longoria, Mike Moustakas, Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner, Eduardo Escobar

Outfield

Hunter Renfroe signs with Royals: The journeyman Renfroe offers a stable skill set at this point, having slammed 20-plus home runs for six consecutive full seasons, though he doesn't hit for average, doesn't get on base at a league-average clip and he doesn't steal bases. In addition, playing 50% of his games in Kansas City will not help. Still, if you desire your last outfielder to blast 20 home runs and offer little else, this is your fellow. -- Karabell (12/14)

Jung Hoo Lee signs with Giants: The 2022 KBO League MVP possesses excellent hand-eye coordination and plate awareness. He should offer fantasy managers a high batting average and on-base percentage, a low strikeout rate and the potential to score myriad runs from the top of the Giants lineup. Allow for some time for him to react to far more challenging pitching than he faced in Korea, but Lee, 25, is a proven, mature player. He does not hit for much power or steal many bases, but there is room in ESPN standard leagues for players with his high-contact skill set. -- Karabell (12/12)

Tyler O'Neill traded from Cardinals to Red Sox: O'Neill mashed 34 home runs in his magical 2021, but he's hit only 23 home runs over the last two seasons (168 games), succumbing to multiple injuries. It's a good gamble both for the Red Sox and for fantasy managers looking for a sleeper, top-50 outfielder. O'Neill struggles to make contact, but he's built like a linebacker, can draw a walk, and should be good for double-digit stolen bases. He just needs to be healthy. -- Karabell (12/8)

Juan Soto traded from Padres to Yankees: The headline transaction from baseball's Winter Meetings, Soto donning the pinstripes might be the buzz-generating move that puts him back into consideration for being the No. 1 overall-pick in points leagues. Click here for our complete fantasy reaction on the huge trade. -- Cockcroft (12/6)

Alex Verdugo traded from Red Sox to Yankees: Another move in the Yankees' winter chess game. Presumably, he won't be the only hitter the team adds. Verdugo is certainly a better fit for Yankee Stadium than he was Fenway Park, a point underscored by Statcast's estimate that he'd have hit 51 home runs from 2021-23 had all his games been in Yankee Stadium, compared to the 37 he actually hit.

Beyond that, his arrival warrants no parade, as he's a solid-yet-unspectacular player better fit for points-based than rotisserie scoring. The Yankees' other moves will determine the height of Verdugo's 2024 ceiling -- does he bat in the upper third, or lower third, and is he platooned? -- but he could reach top-100 overall/top-25 outfielder heights. -- Cockcroft (12/6)

Jarred Kelenic traded from Mariners to Braves: This deal, an effective salary dump, also sent SP Marco Gonzalez, who will miss a good chunk of 2024 while recovering from surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm, and 1B Evan White to Atlanta in exchange for RP Jackson Kowar and SP Cole Phillips. It cleared roughly $30 million off Seattle's books, so expect the team to make another transactional splash on this page soon.

Nevertheless, it cost the team a still-24-years-old Kelenic, who showed impressive pop over the first 54 days of 2023, batting .297/.350/.564 with 10 home runs in 45 games, but who otherwise has a ghastly .182/.268/.328 hitting line and a 31.1% strikeout rate in his remaining 207 big-league contests. Would anyone be shocked if the 2018 No. 6 overall pick and No. 3 overall prospect on Kiley McDaniel's pre-2021 list finally figures things out in Atlanta? Certainly Kelenic will be worth the late-round gamble -- but everyone will probably be sharing that thought. -- Cockcroft (12/4)

Mark Canha traded from Brewers to Tigers: Detroit acquired Canha's contract in exchange for a minor league pitcher, agreeing to pick up the veteran $11.5 million team option. One of the better on-base specialists currently in the game (although that's as much due to his penchant for being hit by pitches as it is for his strike zone judgment), Canha should occupy a similarly sizable role in Detroit to the ones he occupied for the Athletics, Mets and Brewers over the past five seasons, with similar fantasy production.

Canha was a top-200 overall option (and top-125 hitter) in points leagues, but also a top-300 rotisserie performer in 2023, the latter a credit to his above-average speed and unusually good success rate in stealing bases (80% career). -- Cockcroft (11/7)

Some names still available: Cody Bellinger, Teoscar Hernandez, Joc Pederson, Harrison Bader, Michael Brantley, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Randal Grichuk, Michael Taylor, Robbie Grossman, Kevin Kiermaier, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Aaron Hicks, Jesse Winker, Jurickson Profar, Kevin Pillar

Designated hitter

Shohei Ohtani signs with Dodgers:The game's best player -- by many measures -- moves to the NL West. Click here for our complete fantasy reaction to the huge signing. -- Cockcroft (12/9)

Some names still available: J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler

Starting pitcher

Adrian Houser traded from Brewers to Mets: The Brewers wanted to move salary, but the Mets wanted a back-end rotation option, since Houser has made 68 starts the past three seasons, with various levels of success. Houser averaged 7.8 fantasy points per outing last season (two games in relief), hardly notable to fantasy managers, but he made strides (finally) in walk and strikeout rate despite losing fastball velocity, so perhaps a change of scenery ignites even better statistics at 31. If Houser makes the rotation and has success, look his way as a streaming option. -- Karabell (12/20)

Martin Perez signs with Pirates: The veteran left-hander was not, as widely expected, able to sustain his surprising 2022 success (2.89 ERA) in 2023 (4.45 ERA), even getting bumped from the Rangers rotation. Now he heads to his first NL franchise -- one which plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and should guarantee him a starter's role as long as he performs competently. Perez is competent. Do not expect another sub-3.00 ERA, but volume matters in points formats and Perez should be able to deliver innings, at the very least. -- Karabell (12/19)

Michael Wacha signs with Royals: The underrated Wacha joins his sixth franchise in as many seasons, coming off of a year with 14 wins and a 3.22 ERA for the Padres. He hasn't reached 150 innings in any season since 2017, but he has established himself as a reasonable back-end starter for fantasy managers over the last two years, and he should enjoy hurling regularly in Kansas City. -- Karabell (12/14)

Tyler Glasnow traded from Rays to Dodgers: An elite strikeout pitcher who compiled a 3.20 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a 12.2 K/9 over parts of six seasons with the Rays, Glasnow returns to the NL after having debuted with the Pirates in 2016. Glasnow's skills are hardly in dispute, with a blazing fastball, a wicked slider he threw nearly 35% of the time and a solid changeup, but his durability certainly is. Glasnow pitched a career-high 120 innings in 2023, making 21 starts. The Dodgers and fantasy managers covet more, but we should at least assume the innings he does provide will be excellent. -- Karabell (12/14)

Ryan Pepiot traded from Dodgers to Rays: A key part of the Glasnow trade, Pepiot likely assumes his spot in the Rays rotation, which is intriguing enough since it is the Rays. Now 26, Pepiot features a terrific changeup and the ability to miss many bats, though his control has been a problem. Pepiot made only three big league starts in 2023, missing significant time due to an oblique injury, but his upside warrants attention even in ESPN standard formats. -- Karabell (12/14)

Jack Flaherty signs with Tigers: Once the ace of the Cardinals and a top-10 fantasy starter, Flaherty has struggled with performance and health over the last four seasons, compiling a 4.42 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Orioles dealt for Flaherty last summer, but he pitched so poorly he lost his rotation spot in September and then was relegated to a pair of relief innings of mop-up duty in the playoffs. The Tigers, desperate for veteran innings, will present Flaherty every chance to succeed, but fantasy managers can probably do better. -- Karabell (12/14)

Tyler Mahle signs with Rangers: Mahle emerged during the 2021 season when he struck out 210 hitters with a 3.75 ERA, but he dealt with a sore shoulder the following year for the Reds and Twins and succumbed to Tommy John surgery this past season after only five starts. The Rangers gave Mahle a two-year contract, with the expectation he may return during the second half of the 2024 season. Fantasy managers can hope for the best, but it is a long time to wait, so he may not be worth more than a free agent "add-and-stash" after drafts. -- Karabell (12/14)

Seth Lugo signs with Royals: After years of reliable relief work with the Mets, Lugo finally earned a chance to start for last season's Padres, and he posted a credible 3.57 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and nearly one strikeout per his 146 1/3 innings. Add it all up and Lugo was a top-50 starting pitcher in ESPN points leagues, making him one of the season's mild surprises. Lugo, 34, may lack the statistical upside of other later round starting pitchers, but his new three-year contract all but guarantees him a rotation spot (perhaps as the ace) in a pitcher's ballpark. Pessimists may assume his 2023 campaign was aberrant. It probably wasn't. -- Karabell (12/12)

Eduardo Rodriguez signs with Diamondbacks: Good for Rodriguez, who parlayed an overachieving first half of 2023 (2.64 ERA, 9.3 K/9) into a four-year contract with the defending NL champions. Rodriguez, 30, finished as SP35 in ESPN points leagues scoring, but do not expect another 3.30 ERA, even as he debuts in the NL and in a more pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Rodriguez had a 3.89 second-half ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a 7.7 K/9, numbers more in line with his career path. Those numbers earn Rodriguez a mid-rotation spot in ESPN leagues, but perhaps outside the top-40 starting pitchers. -- Karabell (12/7)

Luis Severino signs with Mets: Why do we care about a pitcher coming off a nightmare season with a 6.65 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP? Because Severino was terrific the season prior, with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and he nearly won a Cy Young award a few seasons before that. Severino offers little-to-no clarity to the Mets or fantasy managers for volume and performance, making only 40 starts over five seasons as he battled one injury after another for the frustrated Yankees, but he isn't even 30 yet. If he regains some fastball velocity and his once-wicked slider, who knows, right? The Mets think it is worth taking a chance on upside, and fantasy managers should consider this late in drafts, too. -- Karabell (11/30)

Sonny Gray signs with Cardinals: The runner-up in AL Cy Young award voting joins his fifth franchise, and his second in the NL. He figures to help his new team considerably more than recent Cardinals innings-eater signings Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Those veterans struggle to keep runs off the board. Gray, third in the majors with a 2.79 ERA, led all qualifiers with a 2.83 FIP, and he has struck out a batter per inning over the last two seasons. Gray has earned his career 3.47 ERA, but he is modestly inefficient and doesn't go deep into starts, thus his single-digit win total over each of the last three seasons and fewer than 12 wins in every year since 2015. Still, fantasy managers may view him as a top-30 fantasy starter after he finished as the SP14 in points scoring. -- Karabell (11/27)

Kenta Maeda signs with Tigers: Maeda heads back to the NL after a mostly disappointing run with the Twins in which he made only 52 starts over four seasons, winning 18 games with a 4.02 ERA. He also missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Maeda, who finished outside the top-100 starting pitchers in points-league scoring in 2023, turns 36 in April. While he still misses enough bats to matter and fantasy managers have always noticed his low WHIP (career 1.14), it is tough to expect high volume. The Tigers wanted an established, veteran presence in their generally young rotation, but fantasy managers can find more than 75 starting pitchers better suited for their teams on Draft Day. -- Karabell (11/27)

Kyle Gibson signs with Cardinals: The Cardinals sure are assembling an "innings-eater" style rotation, going for consistency over upside. Gibson brings a lesser fantasy reputation than fellow signee Lynn -- but maybe rightly so, having scored 34 more points and placed 13 points-league spots higher (SP49, versus SP62 for Lynn) than his new teammate, though with an identical number of 15-point performances in 2023 (11). Hey, at least both are still in a pitching-friendly environment, so both will have matchups appeal. -- Cockcroft (11/21)

Lance Lynn signs with Cardinals: A longtime second-tier fantasy starter, Lynn's average fastball velocity has dipped significantly over the last two seasons, and his 5.73 ERA in 2023 was the highest of his 12 big-league seasons. Still, his durability carries weight in points leagues -- he was the No. 62 starting pitcher in fantasy points last season -- and Busch Stadium's pitching-friendly confines might help him bring that ERA down somewhat. Consider him to be a borderline 12-team mixed option in those formats. -- Cockcroft (11/20)

Some names still available: Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman, Mike Clevinger, Lucas Giolito, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, James Paxton, Rich Hill, Michael Lorenzen, Vince Velasquez, Hyun Jin Ryu, Corey Kluber, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (NPB), Shota Imanaga (NPB)

Relief pitcher

Yuki Matsui signs with Padres: The closer for Japan's Rakuten Golden Eagles for seven of the last nine seasons, including a dominating 2021-23 stretch during which he saved 95 games with a 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate, Matsui will almost assuredly serve in the same role for the Padres, who lost Josh Hader to free agency. A smallish (5-foot-8, 165 pounds) reliever with sometimes-shaky control -- he had a 9.0% walk rate over the past three years -- Matsui might have to prove his mettle during spring training. Even as the victor of a competition, he might bring more inconsistency than the typical closer. Those stats are tough to ignore, though, and make him a top-15 RP option if he lands the gig. -- Cockcroft (12/20)

Andrew Chafin signs with Tigers: Chafin saved eight wins for the Diamondbacks in the first half of 2023, but then the team found better late-inning options, and they dealt him to the Brewers. Chafin finished with rather rough numbers (4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) and he was well outside the top-100 relief pitchers in ESPN standard scoring, but RHP closer Alex Lange performed better versus same-sided batters, so perhaps Chafin finds his way into save opportunities. -- Karabell (12/10)

Will Smith signs with Royals: The well-traveled lefty saved 22 wins for the champion Rangers this past season, though it was far from a smooth ride, notably later in the campaign. Smith had a 4.40 ERA and, for the second time in three seasons, he lost seven games. Smith boasts 113 career saves and his new teammates do not, though it seems more likely RHP James McArthur, who emerged in September, gets his chance to save games. -- Karabell (12/10)

Craig Kimbrel signs with Orioles: Kimbrel, 35, boasts 417 career saves, second among active pitchers to Boston's Kenley Jansen, and 23 came this past season with the Phillies. This hardly means Kimbrel was awesome, but he finished just outside the top 10 closers for ESPN's fantasy scoring. (Just ignore the playoffs, Phillies fans.) Kimbrel was 41st in fWAR among relief pitchers, 88th among relievers with a 3.88 FIP, and one of 25 relief pitchers to permit double-digit home runs, but thanks to the saves and strikeouts (only six relievers had more Ks), fantasy managers did not care. The Orioles desire an experienced, stable closer after awesome Felix Bautista required Tommy John surgery, and Kimbrel will handle ninth-inning duties over surprising RHP Yennier Cano. It may be an adventure - especially in October -- but it is reasonable to expect Kimbrel to duplicate his successful fantasy performance in 2024, making him a worthy mid-round pick. --Karabell (12/6)

Nick Martinez signs with Reds: It's rare to see a pitcher deliver nearly identical stat lines working in an effective swingman role in back-to-back years, but that encapsulated Martinez's 2022-23 following his four-year stint in Japan. The Reds are likely to plan around his being a member of their rotation -- the role in which he was slightly less effective, thanks to a higher WHIP and walk rate, and a lower average fastball velocity than in relief.

Still, he could end up being effective in a multi-inning relief role if starting doesn't pan out or if the team loads up on rotational depth. For fantasy, Martinez would be a streaming candidate only in a starter's role, but a potentially handy daily-league plug-in if handling 80-plus frames out of the bullpen. -- Cockcroft (11/30)

Some names still available: Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks, David Robertson, Daniel Hudson, Dylan Floro, Hector Neris, Keynan Middleton, Wandy Peralta, Aroldis Chapman, Woo-Suk Go (KBO)