There are three weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season, and we're inching closer to January with a snapshot of how the 14-team playoff picture could look on the road to Super Bowl LVIII.
The San Francisco 49ers are sitting pretty to get the 1-seed in the NFC, while the Baltimore Ravens are the favorites to get a first-round bye in the AFC. A few teams already have clinched postseason berths, too.
Which teams could sneak into the wild-card round? And which teams' hopes are all but over? We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences, along with odds for the favorites to make the postseason, clinch the division and even make the Super Bowl. We also have seeding projections for the AFC and NFC, so you can see the most likely matchups in each conference, and get an early look at the teams fighting for the No. 1 pick in next year's draft.
Here's everything you need as we get closer to the NFL playoffs (updated Tuesday, Dec. 19):
Jump to a section:
AFC: Full projections | Seeding
NFC: Full projections | Seeding
Matchup of the week
Race for the 2024 No. 1 pick
Projecting the AFC playoff field
The Buffalo Bills' postseason chances have skyrocketed after three wins in their past four games. The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, have lost four of five, including three in a row. The FPI now gives them a 5% chance to make the playoffs.
The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have the best chance to get the 1-seed and the first-round bye in the AFC, and the two teams face each other in Baltimore in Week 17. The Dolphins' chances took a hit with their loss on Dec. 11 to the Tennessee Titans, however.
In the wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
The Dallas Cowboys' hopes of winning the NFC East took a major hit after their blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. In the South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won three games in a row and are the clear favorites to take the division.
The San Francisco 49ers now have the inside track to get the 1-seed, which comes with a bye. In the wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.
The Los Angeles Rams now have a 53% chance to make the playoffs but it will most likely come as the 6- or 7-seed, as the Dallas Cowboys are heavy favorites to be the 5-seed.
The one game you should absolutely watch
The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams are fighting for an NFC wild-card spot, and their Week 16 matchup will have ramifications for the playoff picture. FPI likes the Rams to be victorious at home, but if they don't win, their postseason chances would be on the ropes.
The race for the No. 1 pick in 2024
The 2024 NFL draft likely will feature two quarterbacks fighting for the No. 1 spot, as Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are ESPN's top-ranked prospects. Which teams could take them? After Week 14's results, the picture has become clearer.
The 5-9 Chicago Bears own the 2-12 Carolina Panthers' first-round pick (via last year's pre-draft trade), and that selection has an 82% chance to land at No. 1, according to the FPI. The 3-11 New England Patriots have the second-best odds to snag the top pick.
The 3-11 Arizona Cardinals also have two first-round picks, with the FPI projecting their original selection at No. 3 and the 7-6 Houston Texans' pick (acquired in their move up in April) at No. 21.
NFL playoff schedule
Week 18 games are Jan. 7, then it's on to the postseason. Here's when each round of games will be played:
Jan. 13-15: Wild-card round
Jan. 20-21: Divisional round
Jan. 28: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 11: Super Bowl LVIII (in Las Vegas)